Belarus unlikely to join Russia’s war on Ukraine, but Łukašenka still a threat – Ukraine’s intel

November 28, BPN. Reports about Belarus’ possible involvement in Russia’s war on Ukraine are part of an information and psychological campaign to spread panic in Ukraine’s border regions, said Andrii Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian defense ministry’s intelligence department.

This campaign also targets Belarusians in their homeland, and people must not give in to this kind of provocation, he added.

The Belarusian army is not likely to join the war as it has not created any assault groups capable of an invasion, but Alaksandr Łukašenka’s regime remains a threat to Ukraine, the official said.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently described Belarus’ entry into the war on the side of Russia as unlikely. Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, said earlier that Russia planned reinforcements in eastern and southern Ukraine instead of preparing a second invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarusian territories.

On February 24, Russia started a full-scale war against Ukraine. Łukašenka admitted that Belarus participated in Russia’s war on Ukraine, but said it was “not killing anyone.”

Authorities in Minsk denied Belarusian army troops’ involvement in combat operations on the Russian side. However, Belarus allowed Russian troops and weapons to move freely through the country, use its airspace, refuel and store military equipment and attack Ukraine from its territory.