{"id":134554,"date":"2025-04-16T21:09:36","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T18:09:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/134554\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"belarusian-commentator-russia-showcases-belarus-as-exemplary-pro-russian-state","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/134554\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian commentator: Russia showcases Belarus as exemplary pro-Russian state"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

April 16, Pozirk<\/em>.<\/strong> <\/em>Russia\u2019s showcasing of Belarus as a model pro-Russian state suggests that it does not seek to absorb it, political analyst Valer Karbalevi\u010d said at a Youtube discussion hosted by the Bank of Ideas on April 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Karbalevi\u010d, Russia has signaled that had Ukraine been similar to Belarus, there would have been no war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The fact that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin visited Belarus twice last year demonstrates that he ‘respects’ Belarus’ independence in a way. Putin does not visit Tatarstan or Chechnya twice a year. And the fact that [Alaksandar] \u0141uka\u0161enka made an official visit to Russia after the presidential election demonstrates that ‘if you behave like \u0141uka\u0161enka, no one would touch you,'” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He emphasized that making correct forecasts is always difficult, but noted he was optimistic about his country’s prospects because Russia had failed to totally subdue Abkhazia and Belarus was much more independent than Georgia’s breakaway region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Karbalevi\u010d also commented on the 2020 post-election protests, saying that Belarusian society was more mature than the officialdom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“That is a great weakness of the current regime. And since it’s a personalistic regime, everything is linked to one man. I believe that if \u0141uka\u0161enka goes away, any new political force or person who gets power would have to strive for some kind of legitimacy among the general public and the ruling elite. This legitimacy could only be won through de-Lukashization,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for US President Donald Trump, Karbalevi\u010d called him a “black swan” and “a phenomenon with unpredictable consequences.” “It is both a threat and a hope. It is also a window of opportunity of a kind we may not even know,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank of Ideas is a discussion platform of Belarus’ expert community. Its declared goal is helping leaders and the pro-democracy public to understand adaptation to the new global era and to use the next window of opportunity to the country’s benefit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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