{"id":155329,"date":"2025-09-13T14:11:45","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T11:11:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/155329\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T12:05:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T12:05:06","slug":"us-think-tank-russia-belarus-unlikely-to-use-zapad-2025-for-escalation","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/155329\/","title":{"rendered":"US think tank: Russia, Belarus unlikely to use Zapad-2025 for escalation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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September 13, Pozirk.<\/em> <\/strong>Russia and Belarus may have temporarily backed away from plans to use the Zapad-2025 drill for nuclear blackmail of the West, says a recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier plans to train the use of nukes and Oreshnik missiles during the maneuvers stand in contrast to a softened rhetoric of Belarusian officials in recent days amid increased tensions with NATO after a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace three days ago, the analysts noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, Belarusian Security Council chief Alaksandar Valfovi\u010d described Zapad-2025 as \u201cpurely defensive in nature\u201d aiming \u201cto work out issues related to ensuring the military security of the Union State.\u201d The official stressed that Minsk and Moscow moved the exercises \u201cdeep inside\u201d Belarus and far from the state borders,\u201d while the Belarusian military shared their plans for the drill with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, said earlier that Zapad-2025\u00a0 \u201cis not aimed against anyone\u201d and will focus on troop coordination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These statements contrast with prior comments on the Zapad-2025 exercise and may indicate that “Russia does not seek nuclear escalation and that Russia\u2019s use of nuclear weapons remains unlikely,” the ISW noted. “Russia and Belarus may assess that nuclear saber-rattling efforts would be unwise due to NATO\u2019s developing response to the September 9-10 drone incursion.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia launched the joint military exercise Zapad-2025 in Belarus yesterday. The drill, expected to last until September 16, prompted Belarus\u2019 neighbors to take unprecedented security measures, including the closure of the Polish-Belarusian border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year\u2019s exercise is expected to be smaller in scale, according to Lithuanian military intelligence chief Mindaugas Mazonas, and will involve up to 30,000 troops across both countries. In Belarus, around 8,000 personnel are expected to take part, including up to 2,000 Russians. Minsk has not disclosed official figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the exercise will take place in the waters of the Baltic and Barents Seas, the Russian defense ministry announced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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