{"id":189472,"date":"2026-05-27T16:42:41","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T13:42:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/189472\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T16:42:43","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T13:42:43","slug":"isw-moscow-appears-to-be-setting-conditions-to-justify-drone-strikes-at-ukraine-from-belarus","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/189472\/","title":{"rendered":"ISW: Moscow appears to be setting conditions to justify drone strikes at Ukraine from Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

May 27, Pozirk.<\/em> <\/strong>The Institute of Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, has interpreted yesterday\u2019s remarks by Alaksandar Valfovi\u010d, state secretary of Belarus\u2019 Security Council, as an attempt to justify Russia\u2019s drone strikes at Ukraine from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During a meeting with his counterparts from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Moscow on May 26, Valfovi\u010d said that Belarus registered 116 drone incursions from Ukraine last week and employed air defense assets 59 times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn some cases, these are not accidental incidents, but attempts to strike border infrastructure under the pretext of accidental incursions,\u201d he said, as quoted by state media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia may use claimed instances of Ukrainian drones in Belarusian airspace to justify using Belarusian territory to launch \u201cretaliatory\u201d strikes against Ukraine, the ISW said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian territory would allow Russia to conduct continuous drone strikes against Ukrainian ground lines of communication in western and northwestern Ukraine that Russian drones cannot currently easily strike with precision and heavy payloads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian forces\u2019 ability to use Belarusian territory to launch strikes may allow Russian Shahed-type drones and cheaper Molniya drones to target the M-06 highway that runs through western Ukrainian oblasts, including key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine and the railway connecting Poland and Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian forces are already targeting western Ukrainian oblasts from Russian territory, but launching the drones from Belarus would allow Russian forces to operate remotely controlled Shahed and Molniya drones, increasing their precision and ability to strike moving targets along Ukrainian communication lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drone operator based in Belarus conducted a FPV-controlled Shahed strike against a Ukrainian freight train near Korosten, Zhytomyr Oblast (roughly 50 kilometers south of the Belarusian border) on December 22, 2025, the ISW said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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