{"id":204294,"date":"2026-09-17T23:59:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T20:59:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/204294\/"},"modified":"2026-09-18T00:06:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T21:06:43","slug":"no-single-russian-hand-behind-regime-experts-say","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/204294\/","title":{"rendered":"No single \u201cMoscow hand\u201d behind regime, experts say"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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September 17, Pozirk<\/em>.<\/strong> The Warsaw-based Center for New Ideas says in a new study<\/a> that Belarus\u2019 government system does not appear to be directed by a single \u201cMoscow hand,\u201d with ties to Russia especially strong in the security apparatus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study maps the \u201canatomy\u201d of the ruling elite with 271 members and nearly 3,500 biographical links based on shared career history and education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the authors, Juryj Drakachrust and Anton Radnianko\u016d, 55 of the individuals under review, or 20 percent, have identifiable ties to Russia. These individuals \u201care concentrated mainly in security communities,\u201d where their share reaches 39 percent. Russian connections are defined as being born, studying or working in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The army and the interior ministry form an isolated cluster, while state security agency veterans now in civilian posts are among the most influential actors, the study suggests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The military and the police group, with 33 members, is the largest stable community, although with limited pathways into civilian governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state security agencies group, with 26 members, is almost as internally dense but far more integrated into the administrative apparatus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both security clusters are \u201cbarely represented in the dense core\u201d of the system, accounting for only three of the 65 core members. Their strong internal networks contrast with the administrative apparatus, which holds most of the system\u2019s connective tissue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Experts: Luka\u0161enka\u2019s departure likely to begin as managed handover<\/h3>\n
July 21, Pozirk. A majority or experts interviewed in a recent survey agreed that a transfer of power in Belarus by 2040 is almost inevitable, and it is likely to begin as a managed top-down process. As many as 29 …<\/div>\n \n