{"id":4456,"date":"2023-09-06T14:25:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-06T11:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=articles&#038;p=4456"},"modified":"2026-03-10T12:05:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T12:05:06","slug":"border-closure-risk-diminishes-mistrust-remains","status":"publish","type":"articles","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/4456\/","title":{"rendered":"Border closure risk diminishes, mistrust remains"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski,\u00a0Pozirk<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>The potential closure of borders with Belarus is losing its relevance after the death of Wagner Group leaders, Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus\u0117da told LRT on September 4.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He noted discord among mercenaries and the lack of evidence of Wagner involvement in efforts to undermine the European Union\u2019s border security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chrenin unexpectedly plays down border intrusion<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Defense Minister Viktar Chrenin earlier this week played down an alleged recent border violation by a Polish military helicopter. Minsk sees it as an error blamed on the pilot\u2019s poor skills, not as \u201ca provocation,\u201d the general told reporters covering the ongoing Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) exercise Combat Brotherhood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although some of the CSTO drills are taking place close to NATO\u2019s eastern flank, the alliance does not seem to view the training as a big threat. The exercise involves up to 2,500 troops from Belarus, Russia and Central Asian countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the Central Asian countries are generally not interested in confrontation with NATO, Russia has it hands full in Ukraine and can hardly conduct a big operation elsewhere. Evidence of that is Moscow\u2019s decision to cancel the large-scale Zapad exercise originally scheduled to take place in Belarus in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fewer illegal crossing attempts<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The EU neighbors reported a slight decrease in attempts by migrants to cross its border illegally from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daily attempts fell from nearly 300 on July 27 to fewer than 100 in the first three days of September, but then rose to 133 on September 4. Anyway, tension has eased considerably since the fall of 2021, when thousands of foreigners stormed the border with Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Attempts dropped by half last week, noted Hiennad\u017a Kor\u0161una\u016d, a Belarusian researcher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, the Belarusian interior ministry reported earlier this week that police had rounded up 40 travelers from India who lacked proper documents. It said that the group arrived from Russia and was on its way to Latvia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although, it is easy for migrants to cross the porous Russian-Belarusian border, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s security forces are quite capable of limiting the illegal traffic. However, the Belarusian leader has repeatedly cited Western sanctions to defend his decision to allow foreigners to travel freely through Belarus to the EU, legally or illegally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, Minsk might have finally intervened to keep illegal border crossings down after the interior ministers of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland had threatened in late August to seal the border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can \u0141uka\u0161enka make a deal with West?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski described the CSTO exercise as an element of psychological warfare against Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said this week that Warsaw had rejected an invitation to observe it because \u201csuch invitations should be interpreted as propaganda actions,\u201d taking into account unfriendly steps by Belarus, such as the arrival of Wagner Group mercenaries, deployment of nuclear ammunition and migration pressure, Belsat TV quoted him as saying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The statement is indicative of the lack of trust between Warsaw and Minsk with both sides trading accusations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0141uka\u0161enka added to tension when he declared on August 25 that Wagner mercenaries were to stay in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another point of contention is the imprisonment of Polish journalist Andrzej Poczobut (Andrej Pa\u010dobut). The Belarusian ruler is adamant to keep in jail and said he was not interested in Warsaw\u2019s proposal to free the minority leader in return for opening border crossings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0141uka\u0161enka does not seem to believe in the possibility of serious dealings with the West that could give him immunity from prosecution and ease international sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Queues at border crossings<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>More than 500 trucks were waiting in the line to cross into Lithuania from Belarus on September 5, the Belarusian State Border Committee reported. The agency accused Lithuanian border and customs officers of sluggishness, noting that the cross-border traffic at the Medininkai checkpoint was 70 percent below capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Border closure would have far-reaching economic repercussions and affect travelers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">One on one with dictatorship<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The key source of tension is the toxic Belarusian regime, although politicians and security officials in EU countries sometimes exaggerate border security threats emanating from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0141uka\u0161enka may tone down his aggressive rhetoric, but he refuses to make any concessions despite the prospect of complete isolation. He sees the West as his arch-enemy seeking to dethrone him. He is too reliant on Moscow to make independent decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Belarusian strongman cannot seem to stop the political crackdown, a move that could help launch a difficult negotiation process. He fears that his regime will fall if he loosens screws on his opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tensions with neighbors are likely to persist until the end of his rule. He can make overtures to the West only under extreme circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, all Belarusians can hope for is that the EU will not seal its border to leave them one on one with the dictatorship.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski,\u00a0Pozirk The potential closure of borders with Belarus is losing its relevance after the death of Wagner Group leaders, Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus\u0117da told LRT on September 4. He noted discord among mercenaries and the lack of evidence of Wagner involvement in efforts to undermine the European Union\u2019s border security. Chrenin unexpectedly plays [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-4456","articles","type-articles","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Border closure risk diminishes, mistrust remains | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski,\u00a0Pozirk The potential closure of borders with Belarus is losing its relevance after the death of Wagner Group leaders, Lithuanian\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/news\/4456\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Border 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