{"id":100111,"date":"2024-08-12T09:45:10","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T06:45:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/100111\/"},"modified":"2024-08-12T09:45:12","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T06:45:12","slug":"trumps-peace-plan-suits-lukasenka-harris-victory-offers-him-no-gain","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/100111\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s peace plan suits \u0141uka\u0161enka, Harris victory offers him no gain"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

While Donald Trump\u2019s peace plan may give Ukraine some hope, it is completely unacceptable to Russia. However, it is likely to suit Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka. Minsk is hoping for a Trump win in the US presidential election, while a Kamala Harris victory would be bad news for the Belarusian authorities.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Kamala Harris\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Gage Skidmore \/ flickr.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The potential scope of Trump\u2019s plan has been discussed in recent publications by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Territorial gain vs strategic loss<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, former US President Trump has been blaming the Democrats, especially President Joe Biden, for the escalation in Europe. Trump claims that he would have prevented the war and is now in a position to put a quick end to the bloodshed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of the Republican candidate\u2019s critics are convinced that Trump is ready for the handover of Ukraine to the Kremlin. Some of the statements made by the politician and influential people close to him give serious reason to worry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s former national security adviser, John Bolton, thinks the former president\u2019s statements are just empty bluster and that the Republican candidate does not really have a plan to end the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n, who is close to Trump, thinks that if elected, the Republican would stop supplying Ukraine with arms, which would bring the war to an end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Boris Johnson and Mike Pompeo, who get along with Trump quite well, are expecting a different approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The versions of Trump\u2019s plan as presented by Johnson and Pompeo, while different in some ways, have a lot in common.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johnson and Pompeo say the goal is to have Russia to agree to fair peace talks. To that end, the US military would step up its support for Ukraine in both quality and quantity to force big concessions out of Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Ukraine would not be able to regain the territory it had in 1991 and would have to accept pretty significant losses. But Russian President Vladimir Putin would not achieve his goals, and in the end, he would even suffer a heavy defeat because Ukraine would join both the EU and NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump’s plan, according to Republican Pompeo, involves lifting sanctions on Russia, but such a move would be of little comfort to the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not surprisingly, Moscow reacted immediately. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that all the goals of the \u201cspecial military operation\u201d will be achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin\u2019s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow is aware of the negative views held by the \u201cRussophobic elites\u201d of the United States and does not expect the election to have any positive outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has not commented on Trump\u2019s plan. The Belarusian government backs the Republican candidate and criticizes his Democratic rival Harris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does Trump\u2019s plan mean for \u0141uka\u0161enka? And if Harris wins, what is in store for the Belarusian autocrat?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Serene old age for dictator<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly said that his main goal is to keep the Belarusian army in Belarus and prevent a fighting spillover into his country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Up until recently, the authorities have been pretty lucky, and the current geopolitical situation in Europe has only increased the already great importance of Belarus for Russia. In that context, Moscow was quick to offer economic and political support to its only full-fledged ally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader keeps saying he wants peace, but he is actually quite happy with the way things are. However, the status quo is very fragile, and there is still a risk of Belarus\u2019 deeper involvement in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is trying to expand his little political maneuvering space as much as he can. He would like to reduce his dependence on Russia and improve relations with the West in order to have sanctions lifted or eased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Trump\u2019s plan \u2013 as promoted by Johnson and Pompeo \u2013 is put into action, it would end the war and encourage a d\u00e9tente in Europe, which is also fine for \u0141uka\u0161enka. More so, it would even give him additional political and economic chances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus would still be a key player for Russia. It would remain Russia\u2019s western outpost located on the border with Ukraine, a potential NATO member.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow would keep supporting \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regime as much as it can. If the plan works, the Kremlin would have to hold back its imperial ambitions, which pose a threat to Belarus\u2019 independence too. And therefore, \u0141uka\u0161enka would be able to spend the rest of his presidential life in relative peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sick of \u201cliberal terrorists\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Russian political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya told The Washington Post<\/em> that Harris\u2019 victory in the US presidential election would be \u201ca huge disappointment for the Kremlin.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stanovaya notes that the Kremlin hardliners do not think Harris will take any concrete anti-Russian steps, but consider her a candidate of \u201cliberal terrorists\u201d with whom they cannot find common ground in principle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stanovaya has a point. Russian and Belarusian state propaganda is hostile to Harris because of racial and sexual prejudices that are common in these circles and also because of the rejection of liberal democracy and diversity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka are basically on the same page. \u0141uka\u0161enka is also counting on Trump, who he sees as a kindred spirit. He is hoping that Trump\u2019s next term as president will enable Minsk to improve relations with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael McFaul, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama and US ambassador to Russia, is confident that Harris, if elected, will continue Biden\u2019s policy of supporting and strengthening ties with the Belarusian pro-democracy forces. This is exactly what official Minsk fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* * *<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian officials are rooting for Trump. He is associated with hope for new relationship with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Trump\u2019s peace plan, as interpreted by Johnson and Pompeo, is pretty much what \u0141uka\u0161enka is looking for. If Harris wins, tension between Minsk and Washington is likely to remain high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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