{"id":100459,"date":"2024-08-14T12:16:35","date_gmt":"2024-08-14T09:16:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/100459\/"},"modified":"2024-08-14T13:07:40","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T10:07:40","slug":"ukrainian-incursion-may-prompt-moscow-to-remind-lukasenka-of-his-commitments","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/100459\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukrainian incursion may prompt Moscow to remind \u0141uka\u0161enka of his commitments"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As Ukrainian troops advance in Russia’s Kursk province, the Belarusian leader sent reinforcements to the border with Ukraine but seems reluctant to step into the fray.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u0141uka\u0161enka hesitant despite commitments<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite Belarus\u2019 collective defense commitments within the Union State and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), \u0141uka\u0161enka has stirred clear of direct involvement into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022 and 2023, he tried to persuade the CSTO leaders to back Russia, but no one wanted to become embroiled in the clash. Now \u0141uka\u0161enka himself seems to be leaning toward a hands-off approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019 military doctrine, adopted in April 2024, provides that an attack on the ally (Russia) is an attack on the Union State, and therefore Belarus is committed to take action to assist the attacked ally. However, despite the challenges facing Russia’s Kursk province, Minsk is not in a rush to offer support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian pro-war bloggers accused Belarus of betrayal, saying that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s July 13 decision to pull his troops out of the border area with Ukraine gave Kyiv a chance to attack the Kursk province.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian propaganda has tried to counter these claims as ungrounded and an attempt to drive a wedge between Minsk and Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, however, would not comment on the incursion, probably considering it to be a bad moment for self-promotion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

War brings pain to Russians<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday Ukraine controlled 74 towns and villages in the region – or about 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) according to his military chief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The governor of Russia’s border province of Belgorod has declared a state of emergency, saying Ukrainian shelling is making the situation “extremely difficult and tense”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The incursion is a big problem for the Kremlin, which has been trying to show that its \u201cspecial military operation\u201d does not affect Russians at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian government has delayed a new mobilization by offering high salaries to attract volunteers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Kyiv has already made its point, that Vladimir Putin\u2019s war of choice must now bring some pain to Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has also paid a heavy price for supporting the Russian leader by offering his troops the staging ground for an attack on Kyiv in 2022. The move prompted the West to impose harsh sanctions, while Minsk lost a considerable degree of flexibility in foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, the Belarusian army has not been involved in hostilities, while propaganda has convinced a portion of the population that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s \u201cwisdom\u201d helps maintain peace in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv has made it clear that it will not attack Belarus as long as it stays out of fighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, \u0141uka\u0161enka has managed to convince Putin that the Belarusian army must protect the Union State\u2019s western border from possible NATO attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what if Moscow demands that Belarus honor its commitments? Putin is unlikely to do so because he does not want to appear weak in the face of the Ukrainian counterattack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, \u0141uka\u0161enka is cautious at this moment, reluctant to reiterate his readiness to defend the Union State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s precarious position<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Experts believe that Ukraine\u2019s foray may enable it to bargain for the return of its own territory from a position of greater strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is also considering the possibility of a reconciliation with Ukraine. He has toned down his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and reined in propagandists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of his recent moves, like the release of dozens of political prisoners, seem to be an attempt to reach out to the West, but that is not enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is too reliant on Moscow and is reluctant to make significant concessions, such as releasing journalist and Polish minority leader Andrej Pa\u010dobut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike Putin, \u0141uka\u0161enka is not obsessed with gathering lands. But he wants to stay in power, even at the cost of making Belarus dependent on Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He persuaded Moscow to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus, making it a target for hypothetical retaliation strikes. He fully backs Russia in its war against Ukraine, which can have bad consequences for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Putin demands that he send troops to the Kursk province or provide territory for a new attack on Ukraine, \u0141uka\u0161enka may not be able to wriggle out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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