{"id":101048,"date":"2024-08-19T10:41:54","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T07:41:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/101048\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-generals-whip-up-hysteria-claiming-risk-of-invasion","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/101048\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka, generals whip up hysteria, claiming risk of invasion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Against the backdrop of a Ukrainian incursion in the Kursk province, the Belarusian leader gathered his generals on August 16 to demonstrate combat readiness. It was a show of force for the Kremlin and the Russian public to avoid involvement in real war alongside the aggressive ally.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka showing on the map in March 2022 where Ukraine allegedly planned to attack Belarus\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Screenshot of an official video)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Threat 1: nationalist squads<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka said that Belarus \u201chas always been at the center of geostrategic interests.\u201d He warned that squads formed of his opponents are being trained abroad to invade and seize power from him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The remarks are nothing new. \u0141uka\u0161enka routinely belittles or demonizes the armed groups of the political opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, based on recent statements by opposition fighters, their strength is quite low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the New Belarus 2024 conference held in Vilnius on August 3-4, volunteer fighter Andrej Ku\u0161niaro\u016d said that just about 350 Belarusians had been involved in the fighting in Ukraine in some way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Paspalitaje Ru\u0161e\u0144nie \u201csquads\u201d in Poland and Lithuania are small and lack funding. They are more like military sports clubs than combat units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Vadzim Kaban\u010duk a former leader at the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment (KKR) appointed as security chief by \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, pointed out that he sees the KKR and paramilitary units mostly as a way to maintain psychological pressure on the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The KKR is part of the Ukrainian army, and it is not in Kyiv\u2019s best interest to provoke Belarus into attacking Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Threat 2: provocations from Ukraine<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Generals accused Kyiv of planning provocations against Belarus. Defense Minister Andrej Chrenin said Ukraine is stepping up its border defenses and intelligence \u2013 which makes total sense after Russian troops invaded it from Belarus in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chrenin said there is a high risk of armed provocations involving both Ukrainian forces and exiled Belarusian nationalists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unclear why the Ukrainians would want to clash with Belarus when they are struggling to hold their positions on the battlefield with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The generals do not bother to answer this question. They are told to whip up hysteria, so they do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Troops redeployed to Ukrainian border<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Russian pro-war bloggers called \u0141uka\u0161enka a traitor after he pulled his troops out of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s meeting with the generals was intended to reassure Moscow that things have been fixed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavie\u0142 Muraviejka, chief of the General Staff, noted that the army deployed a larger force at the border than before. Ukrainian experts dismissed that talk as a psychological operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka stressed that Belarus has everything it needs to defend itself from potential threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin not so naive<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is pretty clear that Minsk wants to show that it is using all its military might to scare off the Ukrainians and NATO so that the Russians will have fewer questions about its passivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has already shared his thoughts on the matter in an interview with Russia<\/em> TV<\/em>, and he has now taken his bravado a step further with his conference with the generals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is whether Putin buys \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s excuses for not sending his troops to help Russia beat Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin does not refer to the Ukrainian incursion as aggression to keep Russians calm and maintain the illusion that his \u201cspecial military operation\u201d is not disrupting their peaceful lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He would not ask \u0141uka\u0161enka for direct military assistance publicly because this could show Russia\u2019s weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, Putin knows that \u0141uka\u0161enka might snub the Kremlin rather than face political death. Many experts say that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s days would be numbered if he entered the war, and he probably knows it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, the only thing he can do now is to show off his readiness to repel a potential Ukrainian attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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