{"id":106853,"date":"2024-09-27T14:18:31","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T11:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/106853\/"},"modified":"2024-09-27T14:18:33","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T11:18:33","slug":"west-unlikely-to-turn-page-on-2020-after-next-years-election","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/106853\/","title":{"rendered":"West unlikely to turn page on 2020 after next year\u2019s election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As the Belarusian government prepares for the 2025 presidential election, it hopes to improve ties with the West. However, such expectations may be overly optimistic. Democratic nations do not recognize \u0141uka\u0161enka because of the disputed 2020 election, which involved fraud and violence.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Alexa \/ pixabay.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Legitimacy not negotiable<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The United States, UK, European Union, and other democratic nations denied recognition to Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka following the 2020 presidential election, which was marred by police brutality and allegations of fraud. International exclusion has a psychologically damaging effect on the ambitions of the Belarusian strongman, even if non-recognition cannot dislodge him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka shows no intention of holding a fair election next year to appease the West. Like Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in Venezuela, he is unlikely to gain legitimacy through fraudulent votes. Although Maduro allowed an opposition candidate to participate in the July race, he subsequently rigged the results and intensified repression. Despite claiming victory with only 52 percent of the vote, the West refused to recognize him as president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, likely to bar genuine opponents from running and manipulate the electoral process for a landslide victory, stands little chance of receiving international recognition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin\u2019s spineless pawn<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shifted the West’s focus away from Belarus. While Minsk fully supports Moscow in the conflict, it currently has no troops in Ukraine and only sporadically allows its territory to be used for Russian military operations. The West appreciates this, as it mitigates the risk of war spilling over into NATO\u2019s neighboring regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly stated that he does not wish to be dragged into the conflict. However, the peace in Belarus largely stems from Russia’s failure to fully exploit the country’s military resources. In recent years, Belarus has increasingly relied on Moscow, with the Kremlin controlling nearly all military decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The deployment of Russian troops in Belarus for a march on Kyiv in February 2022, along with the presence of Wagner military contractors and nuclear weapons, underscores Belarus’s involvement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While \u0141uka\u0161enka is interested in participating in peace talks as an equal partner, he is not perceived by the West as an independent actor. His subservience to Moscow limits his strategic options, as improved ties with the West are not aligned with Kremlin interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine, Moldova, and Armenia have shown that Russian President Vladimir Putin views rapprochement with those he considers adversaries as a potential threat to his security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political thaw impossible without democratic progress<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While \u0141uka\u0161enka relies on Moscow for foreign policy, he still makes domestic policy decisions. In the past three months, he pardoned 115 political prisoners. The West expects him to release all political prisoners and cease reprisals as a precondition for easing sanctions, excluding those related to Belarus’s involvement in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler fears that releasing thousands of prisoners could lead to political instability, something he is keen to avoid. Consequently, the 2025 election may reinforce his regime and bolster Kremlin influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A significant improvement in Minsk’s relations with the West appears unlikely. The West may ultimately give up on Belarus, which is now firmly within the Russian sphere of influence. The United States, UK, and EU may reduce their support for Belarus’s pro-democracy forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"