{"id":107150,"date":"2024-09-30T12:37:32","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T09:37:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/107150\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-mobilizes-his-storm-troopers-ahead-of-election","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/107150\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka mobilizes his \u201cstorm troopers\u201d ahead of election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the lead-up to the presidential election, Belarusian leader Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has adopted a more aggressive tone towards his opponents, describing the upcoming poll as a battlefield and referring to local officials as \u201cstorm troopers\u201d during a meeting on September 26.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Minsk police are training to \u201cmaintain order at polling stations\u201d for the February 2024 election\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Video screenshot: Belarusian interior ministry\u2019s Telegram channel)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Elections gauge efficiency of local officials<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At this meeting, \u0141uka\u0161enka provided updates on harvesting progress and infrastructure programs but devoted much of his time to discussing the impending election. He warned local officials against complacency, adding that his critics had \u201ccombed out\u201d of the country on their own accord.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His belligerent rhetoric reflected a clear intent to mobilize local leaders. Elections serve as a mechanism for the regime to assess the effectiveness of district and regional chiefs in rallying the electorate and achieving high voter turnout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regional and district officials, in turn, oversee their subordinates, including factory managers, directors of local state institutions and university rectors. The effectiveness of their efforts directly influences promotions, demotions and the allocation of state resources for reward or repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the tumultuous 2020 presidential election, \u0141uka\u0161enka frequently reshuffled his central and local governments. His disappointing performance against a female opponent in that election remains a sensitive issue, making him particularly cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertainty over election date<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In August, BelPol, an association of former Belarusian law enforcement officers, claimed that the government planned to hold the election early, on February 23. However, some commentators argue that this claim may now be irrelevant, as the election date must be announced at least five months in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Electoral Code stipulates that the election must occur no later than two months before \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s presidential term expires on July 20, 2025. The entire presidential election cycle can be condensed into less than three months, leaving the government with some flexibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2006, to hinder opposition mobilization, the election was scheduled for March 19 instead of July. Similarly, the 2020 election was held three months earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there are currently no clear signs of mass protests, \u0141uka\u0161enka may choose a colder season that is less conducive to public gatherings. It is worth noting that the protests in March 2006 and December 2010 were significant despite the cold weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka hesitates on Ukraine war but is ready to battle opposition<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The exiled opposition, realistic about public fear, does not plan to organize protests. Instead, it is considering encouraging Belarusians to vote against all candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s claim that his exiled opponents intend to storm into Belarus and cause chaos is utterly preposterous. The opposition lacks the military capability and resources for such an operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment, a unit formed of Belarusian volunteer fighters in Ukraine under Ukrainian command, is hardly a regiment in terms of numbers. Just about 350 Belarusians served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the beginning of the year, said volunteer fighter Andrej Ku\u0161niera\u016d at the New Belarus conference in August. The Ukrainian command dictates the use of these soldiers, and Kyiv has no intention of attacking Belarus unless its army is directly involved in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, propaganda is poised to exploit any incidents at the border or within the country to brand opponents as terrorists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka determined to hold onto power<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In his typical fashion, \u0141uka\u0161enka has discredited and vilified his political opponents. Determined to maintain control, he has ordered local officials to \u201cpolish the country to perfection\u201d over the next five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite rumors that his presidential nomination might depend on the Kremlin or Beijing, as some commentators suggest, \u0141uka\u0161enka has been in power for three decades and shows no signs of leaving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has already launched his campaign to secure a seventh consecutive term with the help of his \u201cstorm troopers,\u201d some of whom demonstrated their loyalty during the parliamentary and local elections held in February 2024, which democratic governments denounced as a sham.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These elections occurred in an environment of intense fear and repression designed to stifle freedom of expression, suppress peaceful assembly and reinforce the regime\u2019s already ironclad control over society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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