{"id":108031,"date":"2024-10-05T10:42:09","date_gmt":"2024-10-05T07:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/108031\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-receives-diplomatic-credentials-as-opposition-pushes-for-icc-arrest-warrant","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/108031\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka receives diplomatic credentials as opposition pushes for ICC arrest warrant"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka accepted credentials from nine ambassadors on October 1. Only one, a Serbian diplomat, represented Europe. Meanwhile, Belarusian opposition politicians held a news conference in The Hague to discuss ways to prosecute \u0141uka\u0161enka for crimes against humanity.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Ekaterina Bolovtsova \/ pexels.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Long road ahead<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On September 30, the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice formally requested that the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor investigate Belarusian officials for crimes against humanity, citing the fact that some alleged offenses were committed within Lithuania, a signatory of the Rome Statute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of yet, the ICC has not issued an arrest warrant for \u0141uka\u0161enka. Prosecutor Karim Khan has emphasized that referrals do not automatically lead to charges. A preliminary inquiry could take years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political factors further complicate the situation. With the West focused on the Ukraine conflict, there is concern that an investigation into \u0141uka\u0161enka may provoke him into escalating tensions with Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if an arrest warrant were issued, apprehending \u0141uka\u0161enka would be challenging. Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin defied an ICC warrant to visit Mongolia\u2014a Rome Statute state party. Mongolian officials later clarified that their decision not to arrest Putin was influenced by their country’s dependence on Russian energy supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dangerous neighbor<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While \u0141uka\u0161enka may not wield the same global influence as Putin, he has made clear his willingness to escalate tensions. He has claimed possession of Russian nuclear weapons, which he has threatened to use against the West at his discretion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk’s strained relations with neighboring countries are well-documented. Vilnius has expressed outrage over \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s decision to build a nuclear power plant just 50 kilometers from the Lithuanian capital, his support for Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and his facilitation of illegal migration from Asia and Africa into the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw, too, has condemned \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s actions and has signaled its willingness to join efforts to prosecute him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Entrenched regime<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

At the news conference in The Hague, Belarusian opposition leader Sviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja declared that the Rome Statute would be the first international treaty ratified by Belarus after the fall of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s dictatorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, a Warsaw-based Belarusian opposition politician and vocal advocate for an international arrest warrant, expressed hope that “the dictator” would soon face justice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, there are no signs that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s fall is imminent. Despite crushing domestic resistance, \u0141uka\u0161enka appears more confident than ever, bolstered by his alliance with Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently, \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed that exiled opposition forces were planning to \u201cstorm into\u201d Belarus and overthrow him, though this assertion seemed far-fetched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even radical opposition figures acknowledge that a revolution is unlikely in the near term. Instead, they urge Western nations not to recognize \u0141uka\u0161enka after the 2025 elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For its part, the West\u2014particularly the United States\u2014remains wary of Russia\u2019s potential collapse. Washington views Russia as a necessary counterbalance to China in the region and is concerned that a power vacuum could lead to nuclear proliferation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Psychological pressure on dictator<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Despite his attempts to reach out to the West, \u0141uka\u0161enka seems confident that he can manage without Western recognition. He likely hopes that after his departure, his allies will remain in power and delay meaningful change in Belarus for decades to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the end of his rule remains uncertain, regional instability, the war in Ukraine and mounting sanctions seem to have unsettled him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An ICC arrest warrant would likely offer him no solace. Perhaps what haunts \u0141uka\u0161enka most is existential dread, as he frequently references the fates of dictators like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, one of the few viable strategies for his political opponents may be to keep him on edge, making him increasingly nervous about his future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also read: \u0141uka\u0161enka fears his exiled opponents may storm into Belarus<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka accepted credentials from nine ambassadors on October 1. Only one, a Serbian diplomat, represented Europe. Meanwhile, Belarusian opposition politicians held a news conference in The Hague to discuss ways to prosecute \u0141uka\u0161enka for crimes against humanity. Long road ahead On September 30, the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice formally requested that the International Criminal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":107364,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-108031","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka receives diplomatic credentials as opposition pushes for ICC arrest warrant | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka accepted credentials from nine ambassadors on October 1. Only one, a Serbian diplomat, represented Europe. 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