{"id":109826,"date":"2024-10-17T12:50:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T09:50:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/109826\/"},"modified":"2024-10-17T12:50:12","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T09:50:12","slug":"russias-draft-budget-complications-to-reverberate-in-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/109826\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s draft budget: Complications to reverberate in Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>The Russian State Duma has received a draft 2025-2027 budget that calls for a sharp increase in defense and security spending, reaching levels not seen since the Soviet era. Given Belarus\u2019s significant dependence on Russia, this budget presents notable challenges for the Belarusian economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"block-image block-image-normal\">\n\n    <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1128\" height=\"752\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/rossijskij_rubl_pixabay_1128x752.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/rossijskij_rubl_pixabay_1128x752.jpg 1128w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/rossijskij_rubl_pixabay_1128x752-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/rossijskij_rubl_pixabay_1128x752-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/rossijskij_rubl_pixabay_1128x752-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/rossijskij_rubl_pixabay_1128x752-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1128px) 100vw, 1128px\" \/>\n    <figcaption>\n        \n                    <div class=\"block-image__author\">\n                                <span>(pixabay.com)<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Russia\u2019s military spending to rise by 25 percent<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Russian government introduced a three-year budgeting process in the early 2000s when the country\u2019s economy was buoyed by strong global oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarus experimented with longer-term budgets in 2015 but abandoned the approach due to difficulties in making realistic forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s new three-year budget includes a 25-percent increase in military spending for 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s economy and society face significant challenges as a result of the country\u2019s involvement in President Vladimir Putin\u2019s reckless military ventures. In Belarus, the budgets for 2024 and 2025 also include substantial increases in defense and security spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Guns over butter<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Russian media coverage tends to emphasize the state\u2019s social obligations, such as retirement benefits, family support and housing programs, while military spending is often mentioned in passing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In reality, around 40 percent of the budget is allocated to the military, while social programs are underfunded. This includes a modest increase in retirement benefits, cuts to preferential mortgage loans and reduced support for healthcare and education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s budget for the next three years assumes a 24-percent increase in revenue and a 22-percent rise in expenditures in 2024. Growth is expected to slow in 2025, with revenue increasing by 12 percent and expenditures by 5 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n <iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/19672697\/embed#?secret=lkRHB0DqmQ\" data-secret=\"lkRHB0DqmQ\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"500\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2025-27 budget is projected to run a deficit, which will be financed through an increase in domestic debt. The debt is not expected to exceed 18 percent of GDP, which is considered a safe level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short, the budget could be described as \u201cguns over butter,\u201d a stark departure from the previous guns-and-butter approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Any challenge will reverberate in Belarus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite its 7,000 pages, Russia\u2019s draft budget remains fragile. This is particularly true of its forecasts for inflation and oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ministry of Finance aims to reduce inflation to 4 percent, but with the Bank of Russia\u2019s base rate at 19 percent, inflation could remain higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecast for oil prices to drop to $65.5 a barrel by 2027 also appears optimistic, especially given Saudi Arabia\u2019s recent decisions to increase production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The price ceiling on Russian oil continues to weigh heavily on its value. Should oil prices fall further, it could significantly diminish budget revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If inflation or oil price estimates prove inaccurate, Russia could face a shortfall, which would likely have a knock-on effect on Belarus, given its heavy dependence on the Russian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s budget revenues in 2025 and beyond are dependent on a planned tax hike, which is expected to generate an additional 2.7 trillion rubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to previously announced measures\u2014such as increases in income tax and the introduction of a progressive personal income tax scale\u2014the government plans to raise excise taxes on gasoline, alcohol, cigarettes, sugary drinks and petroleum products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Minsk will likely adopt similar measures, as it remains committed to harmonizing its tax policies with Russia\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Russia\u2019s markets and financial aid critical for Belarus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Belarusian economy is deeply integrated with Russia, whose budget exerts considerable influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russian financial support, which accounts for roughly 10 percent of the Belarusian budget, has a direct impact on the economy. Without this support, revenue would decline, and investment programs would be halted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia also funds Union State programs, including initiatives to phase out imports and bolster defense cooperation, which benefit the Belarusian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 2020, and especially after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has become the primary market for Belarusian goods. Belarusian companies\u2019 success in Russia depends largely on the purchasing power of Russian businesses and households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the draft Russian federal budget does not provide for significant growth in these areas, limiting the potential for increased sales of Belarusian goods and potentially impacting exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if the budget is implemented as planned, Belarusian companies will face stiff competition from Chinese manufacturers, who offer a broad range of products at lower prices and with more efficient logistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China and Belarus are already competing in lower-price segments, from food to equipment manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, Belarus\u2019s dependence on Moscow remains fraught with risks, even if Russia\u2019s economic outlook improves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"insert-block\">\n\n    <div class=\"insert-block__img\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"354\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/mcdonalds_minsk-1128-wikimedia-commons_20120428-354x236.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/mcdonalds_minsk-1128-wikimedia-commons_20120428-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/mcdonalds_minsk-1128-wikimedia-commons_20120428-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/mcdonalds_minsk-1128-wikimedia-commons_20120428-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/mcdonalds_minsk-1128-wikimedia-commons_20120428-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/mcdonalds_minsk-1128-wikimedia-commons_20120428.jpg 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/>                        <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> \u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/label>\n\n                <\/div>\n    <div class=\"insert-block__text\">\n                    <label class=\"insert-block__tag\">\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/label>\n                <h3 class=\"insert-block__title\">Belarus\u2019 restaurant industry thriving after withdrawal of foreign chains<\/h3>\n        <div class=\"insert-block__descr\">Despite challenges, the Belarusian restaurant industry is flourishing, with significant increases in dining-out expenditures and the number of establishments, especially in Minsk. Belarusians spending more dining out Currently, Belarus has 17,000 food and beverage establishments, offering 849 seats for every &#8230;<\/div>\n        <a class=\"insert-block__btn-block\" href=\"\/en\/longreads\/109439\">\n            <button class=\"btn\">\n                <div class='btn__text'>Read<\/div>\n            <\/button>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Russian State Duma has received a draft 2025-2027 budget that calls for a sharp increase in defense and security spending, reaching levels not seen since the Soviet era. Given Belarus\u2019s significant dependence on Russia, this budget presents notable challenges for the Belarusian economy. Russia\u2019s military spending to rise by 25 percent The Russian government [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":64101,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-109826","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Russia\u2019s draft budget: Complications to reverberate in Belarus | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Russian State Duma has received a draft 2025-2027 budget that calls for a sharp increase in defense and security spending, reaching levels not seen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/109826\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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