{"id":110983,"date":"2024-10-24T13:18:31","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T10:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/110983\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"why-lukasenka-rushes-election","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/110983\/","title":{"rendered":"Why \u0141uka\u0161enka rushes election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The House of Representatives has set Belarus’ presidential election for January 26, nearly six months before the end of Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s term. Although the Belarusian ruler was in Russia\u2019s Kazan at the time, he personally selected the date.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

His re-election campaign is in full swing as he increases informal visits to villages and small towns, aiming to give the campaign a more personal and down-to-earth feel. He has also held several meetings with youth and students.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the government has launched a “Unity Marathon,” a series of concerts and rallies across the country designed to rally support for the incumbent. A themed concert in Ma\u0142adzie\u010dna, Minsk region, on October 12 featured \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s youngest child playing the piano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fear of opposition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The psychological trauma \u0141uka\u0161enka experienced when he narrowly escaped ouster in 2020 has undoubtedly influenced his decision to expedite the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although his security forces have suppressed unrest, he remains wary of his opponents. Just a few weeks ago, he advised his officials to remain vigilant. \u201cDon\u2019t you think that we, as some people say, have purged everything here? Those who should have been purged have run away. That is their right of choice; they fled. But you should not relax,\u201d he stated in late September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He hopes to turn the page on the disputed 2020 vote, expecting the West to resign itself to his rule and cease support for his exiled opponents, led by former presidential candidate \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He likely chose winter, reasoning that it would be more challenging for opponents to stage protests during the cold season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This decision may also be linked to economic factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He rushed to hold the election as the economy grows at an impressive rate, benefiting from Russian war-related orders and sales in Russia. However, he understands that the war may end soon, potentially slowing down growth. He is also concerned about competition from Chinese producers in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the growth, independent economists have warned of risks associated with overheating and the possible repercussions of stringent price controls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine peace talks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader has repeatedly expressed a desire to participate in potential Ukraine peace talks to further Belarus\u2019 interests. He would prefer to sit at the negotiating table as a \u201cpresident\u201d elected in a \u201cclean\u201d election rather than through a disputed vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the war is unpredictable. \u0141uka\u0161enka may be concerned that Ukraine could eventually retaliate against Belarus for supporting Russian forces, for instance with fuel, so he would like to hold the election under peaceful conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also worth noting that Belarus and Russia plan to conduct large-scale military maneuvers, Zapad-2025, next year. The location of the exercise and the number of troops involved have yet to be determined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia attacked Kyiv in February 2022 immediately after a similar exercise in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Health<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s health has been the subject of speculation due to the secrecy surrounding his condition. As he ages, he may have decided to accelerate the political process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Time is not on his side, which gives hope to his opponents. They anticipate a window of opportunity to open following his departure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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