{"id":112492,"date":"2024-11-04T13:37:54","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T10:37:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/112492\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"election-2025-handpicked-rivals-and-new-generation-in-lukasenkas-circle","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/112492\/","title":{"rendered":"Election 2025: handpicked rivals and new generation in \u0141uka\u0161enka’s circle"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In an interview with Olga Skabeyeva during the BRICS Summit on October 23, \u0141uka\u0161enka confirmed his intention to run for re-election next year. His decision to seek a seventh term and call for early elections was widely anticipated. By the November 1 registration deadline, most potential candidates had been identified, shedding light on the authorities’ strategy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Public push for incumbent<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka told Skabeeva that he would participate in the race if the public urged him to do so. This remark coincided with the launch of the \u201cMust Run\u201d flash mob across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diverse groups from various sectors, including students, workers and soldiers, recorded videos urging him to seek another term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian right-wing philosopher Aleksandr Dugin also joined the flash mob. Notorious propagandist Ryhor Azaronak suggested that Belarusians take an \u201coath of allegiance to their Father,\u201d referring to \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This campaign is part of a broader propaganda effort, which gained momentum after 2020, aimed at crafting an idealized image of \u0141uka\u0161enka as a glorious leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the previous election, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s supporters promoted the message, \u201cOne does not let a loved one go,\u201d comparing the country to a partner. Now, the central message is that the people are pleading for their \u201cfavorite president\u201d to stay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This drive is designed to ensure an \u201coutstanding result\u201d for \u0141uka\u0161enka in what is likely to be his last election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The outcome is predictable. With no real challengers\u2014only a few fringe candidates who praise the leader and criticize the opposition\u2014the election becomes a \u201creferendum of faith.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Handpicked candidates and new generation of loyalists<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In November 2023, Aleh Hajdukievi\u010d, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, declared that only \u201cpatriots and systemic political forces\u201d should participate in the Belarusian elections. The selection of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s rivals reflects this principle among the ruling elite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central election commission (CEC) registered the signature collection groups of pro-government candidates Hajdukievi\u010d, Minsk city ideology chief Volha \u010camadanava and Alaksandar Chi\u017eniak from the Republican Party of Labor and Justice, while rejecting an application from Juryj Hubarevi\u010d, an exiled opposition politician.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, the commission will consider applications from the signature-collection groups of Siarhiej Syranko\u016d from the Communist Party of Belarus; Siarhiej Bobryka\u016d, chairman of the Belarusian Union of Officers; former MP Hanna Kanapackaja; PhD Viktar Kule\u0161, a lecturer at Belarusian State University; and businesswoman Dzijana Kavalova.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many candidates were born shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union and grew up during \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s rule. Kanapackaja was born in 1976; Hajdukievi\u010d and \u010camadanava in 1977; Chi\u017eniak in 1978; and Syranko\u016d in 1981.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They represent the first generation of \u0141uka\u0161enka-era officials holding key positions. D\u017amitryj Krutoj, head of the \u0141uka\u0161enka administration, and Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d, also part of this generation, are seen as potential candidates for the 2030 presidential race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Election campaign as a 2020 winners’ parade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Chi\u017eniak, Bobryka\u016d and Syranko\u016d may be included for appearances, Kanapackaja, \u010camadanava, and Hajdukievi\u010d are expected to play more significant roles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kanapackaja is likely to criticize exiled pro-democracy leaders in an effort to undermine opposition support. Hajdukievi\u010d and \u010camadanava\u2014who stood by \u0141uka\u0161enka during the major protests of 2020\u2014will seize every opportunity to emphasize that the incumbent is indispensable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their participation in the race should be viewed as a reward for loyalty and a clear indication of the rejection of real competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s victory virtually assured, the 2025 election is expected to be the most predictable in recent Belarusian history. The selection of figurehead candidates effectively transforms the race into a parade of \u201c2020 winners.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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