{"id":112839,"date":"2024-11-06T16:44:53","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T13:44:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/112839\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-and-pseudo-challengers","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/112839\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka and pseudo-challengers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The central election commission (CEC) has registered seven groups that will collect at least 100,000 signatures for their presidential nominees between November 7 and December 6. While this may appear to be a fair and democratic process on paper, it is more likely to be one of the most repressive elections in Belarus\u2019s recent history.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Aleh Hajdukievi\u010d, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Vitebskiye Vesti)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pseudo-challengers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s team was the first to register, followed by the groups of Aleh Hajdukievi\u010d, Alaksandar Chi\u017eniak, Siarhiej Syranko\u016d, Siarhiej Bobryka\u016d, Hanna Kanapackaja and Volha \u010camadanava. These pseudo-contenders successfully passed the vetting process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CEC Chairman Ihar Karpienka has previously indicated that only three or four candidates will ultimately appear on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MP Aleh Hajdukievi\u010d, head of the Liberal Democratic Party, is known for his unwavering support of the regime and his invective against its critics. He was one of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s key allies during the 2020 re-election campaign and can hardly be seen as a genuine rival in this race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u017eniak, leader of the Republican Labor and Justice Party, remains relatively low-profile, with both the party and its leader largely absent from the public spotlight. However, he may still serve the purpose of creating the illusion of a multi-party system, despite the fact that only four parties remain in Belarus, all of which support the government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Communist leader Siarhiej Syranko\u016d, also a \u0141uka\u0161enka supporter, has a good chance of making it onto the ballot, as does Minsk\u2019s top ideology officer Volha \u010camadanava, head of the city\u2019s branch of the Belarusian Women\u2019s Union\u2014a pro-government organization notorious for supporting security forces’ violence during the 2020 protests. \u010camadanava\u2019s inclusion is likely intended to promote gender diversity on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kanapackaja, a former member of the opposition United Civic Party turned critic of the opposition, has little chance of qualifying for the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, none of these \u201cchallengers\u201d will criticize \u0141uka\u0161enka; instead, they will likely showcase their talents in praising the leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most genuine opponents are either in prison or in exile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CEC rejects only opposition bid<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The CEC rejected the signature-collection group led by opposition politician Juryj Hubarevi\u010d, who lives abroad after fleeing political persecution in Belarus. Hubarevi\u010d submitted his documents by email, rather than in person or through a power of attorney, an election official explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hubarevi\u010d told Pozirk<\/em> that he had submitted his bid solely to highlight the flaws in the electoral process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Had the authorities been more flexible, they could have registered his group, as collecting 100,000 signatures, especially from abroad, is virtually impossible. Signature collection involves sharing personal data, which puts both overseas Belarusians and their families back home at risk of persecution. Supporting an exiled \u201cextremist\u201d has become even riskier in Belarus, particularly amid the ongoing crackdown on those who supported opposition candidates in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the CEC swiftly rejected Hubarevi\u010d\u2019s bid to avoid any potential trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democracy facade: many applicants, no contest<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A total of eleven individuals have applied to run, creating the illusion of public interest in the race, and presenting an image of a free society and democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Collecting 100,000 signatures is always a daunting task, and in the current repressive environment, it is even more difficult. After the post-2020 election crackdown, many Belarusians will be too afraid to sign, even for a government-approved fringe candidate. The CEC will likely turn a blind eye to any fake signatures to ensure that \u0141uka\u0161enka is not left unopposed on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Karpienka, commenting on the participation of two female candidates, emphasized that there are no gender restrictions. Observers interpret this remark as an attempt to deflect criticism of officials for their recent disparaging statements about women, including former opposition hopeful \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja. The inclusion of government-friendly female candidates seems aimed at silencing critics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has long portrayed himself as the \u201cwomen\u2019s president,\u201d claiming strong support among female voters. This claim is deeply cynical, particularly given that many female opposition leaders remain imprisoned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commenting on the high number of applications, \u0141uka\u0161enka suggested, \u201cI think they just want to safeguard the incumbent president.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSafeguard\u201d here means ensuring that \u0141uka\u0161enka maintains the illusion of democracy. There is no real competition or struggle for power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This election will be a parody, with no genuine opposition among candidates, observers and election officials whose identities are kept secret to avoid online harassment for their involvement in vote-rigging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s peace, economy message<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While his competitors will praise \u0141uka\u0161enka, he is expected to focus on peace and strong economic growth as the central pillars of his campaign. This growth has been driven by war-related orders and sanctions-induced demand for Belarusian goods and services in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although salaries have not yet doubled as \u0141uka\u0161enka promised in 2020, real pay has increased by 25.3 percent over the past five years, and disposable income rose by 9.7 percent between January and August, according to the National Statistics Committee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To bolster his campaign, \u0141uka\u0161enka signed an edict on October 29 lifting the cap on retirement benefits for workers of retirement age.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout his campaign, \u0141uka\u0161enka is engaging with rural residents and pensioners, emphasizing support for vulnerable groups. Last week, at a regional harvest festival in Masty, Hrodna region, he contrasted life today with the hardships of the 1990s, when food coupons, retirement benefit arrears, and cross-border shuttle trade were common survival tactics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCompared to the rest of the world, Belarusians are now living in paradise,\u201d he claimed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, his key message remains the promotion of peace in Belarus. Despite Russian drone incursions, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s constant comparisons between Belarus and war-torn Ukraine help him present himself as a stabilizing force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition tactic: vote against all<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The exiled pro-democracy camp has called on opponents to vote against all candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this campaign is unlikely to gain significant traction and will be difficult to measure. Voters are prohibited from taking pictures of their ballots, the voting booths lack privacy screens, and in the end, votes are not accurately counted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A boycott is also challenging, given the government’s ability to compel citizens who depend on it for their livelihoods\u2014such as military personnel, students, and civil servants\u2014to vote. Their presence at the polls will be sufficient for election commissions to claim a high turnout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The idea that opponents should vote for a fringe pro-government candidate is fanciful. Hajdukievi\u010d and others are unlikely to energize any voters, and many dissidents would consider voting for them unthinkable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only realistic tactic for opposition figures seems to be to shame and ridicule the government. One of the most recent examples is the poorly staged flash mob, \u201cMust Run,\u201d in which representatives of various government-dependent social groups urged \u0141uka\u0161enka to run again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka appeared both touched and suspicious of the attention. He even asked his spokeswoman, Natalla Ejsmant, whether the event had been staged: \u201cI asked her if she organized it. She swore she didn\u2019t, and I believed her.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite his suspicions, \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to be taking this \u201ccircus\u201d seriously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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