{"id":11297,"date":"2021-12-10T11:55:01","date_gmt":"2021-12-10T08:55:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/referendum-seen-as-a-losing-game-for-opponents\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"referendum-seen-as-a-losing-game-for-opponents","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11297\/","title":{"rendered":"Referendum seen as a losing game for opponents"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka mocked the opposition\u2019s appeal to its supporters to spoil ballots during a forthcoming constitutional referendum expected to be held in late February. The Belarusian leader definitely worries that the opposition may use the occasion to try to unseat him.&nbsp; <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<h2>\n<p>\n <span>Luka\u0161enka plays down opposition plan as a joke <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span> <\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThe plan has been made by the escapees to raise funds,\u201d Luka\u0161enka said on November 25. \u201cA man who has seen it all before, I am reading it and wondering whether the West will go crazy again to give money for it.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThey are preparing to break down the constitution and, if their plan materializes, to bring the people of Belarus out into the street again,\u201d he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Opposition leaders suggested that voters cross out all options on the ballot to express their protest against lawlessness.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The plan was unveiled by the Honest People, Zubr and Holas groups and reportedly supported by opposition leader Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja, the People\u2019s Anti-crisis Management led by Paviel Latu\u0161ka and the Coordinating Council.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Its purpose is to foil the referendum, Cichano\u016dskaja said. The opposition leaders dismissed the idea of a boycott.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Opposition\u2019s options are limited<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The opponents have chosen a bad option but it was probably the best option available.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t A boycott has never worked out in Belarus and is seen as a demobilizing strategy. Any plan to topple the regime is bound to fail given the current level of intimidation and fear.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Now that dissidents have been jailed for Facebook likes or a wrong combination of colors of their socks, voters are unlikely to join protests.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, the authorities are ready to use brutal force to prevent opponents from disrupting their plans. Luka\u0161enka claimed a few weeks ago that between 87 and 90 percent of Belarusians backed him. The central election commission might declare a similar percentage of support for the new constitution.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Since the constitution is associated with Luka\u0161enka, he hopes that his triumph at the plebiscite would bolster his legitimacy in the eyes of Belarusians.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Independent polls showed that less than 30 percent of Belarusians trust Luka\u0161enka and up to 55 percent distrust him, according to Hiennadz Kor\u0161una\u016d, a Belarusian sociologist.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Obviously, authorities would have to rig the vote to engineer a landslide victory for Luka\u0161enka\u2019s constitution.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Voting to be closely monitored by police<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Opposition leaders say that voters should come to the polls at the same time, cross out all options and concertina up their ballots to show that there are many opponents of the government in the country.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t That tactic was a success during the August 2020 presidential election. It may not work during the referendum because security officers are likely to be present at polling stations and can arrest voters for any manifestations of dissent.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Although spoiling your ballot is not a crime, \u201cdisrupting a vote by stuffing the ballot box with invalid ballots\u201d is a crime, said Via\u010desla\u016d Arlo\u016dski, chief of the organized crime and cybercrime police unit. He added that police will lock out all instigators and their helpers.&nbsp;&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Protests unlikely in February<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The relentless crackdown in the last 18 months proves that the police can deliver on its promises.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Authorities continue to purge public offices of dissidents, arrest and prosecute opposition supporters. Some people had their apartments searched and forced to sign a pledge not to take part in illegal gatherings. Authorities maintain a high level of intimidation in the run-up to the referendum.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t For this reason, many voters may ignore calls for spoiling ballots or turning up for vote at the same time for fear of arrest.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t And, after all, does it really make sense to take risks? In August 2020, Belarus was close to a tipping point and opponents had a leader in Cichano\u016dskaja. Now there is hardly anything to fight for. Even if the referendum fails, Luka\u0161enka will remain in control with sweeping powers that he has under the current constitution.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Opposition leaders are aware of the weaknesses of their tactic, but they assume that any action is better than doing nothing. However, conditions are likely to be unfavorable for mass protests in February.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka mocked the opposition\u2019s appeal to its supporters to spoil ballots during a forthcoming constitutional referendum expected to be held in late February. The Belarusian leader definitely worries that the opposition may use the occasion to try to unseat him.&nbsp; Luka\u0161enka plays down opposition plan as a joke \u201cThe plan [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11297","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Referendum seen as a losing game for opponents | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka mocked the opposition\u2019s appeal to its supporters to spoil ballots during a forthcoming constitutional\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11297\/\" 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