{"id":11298,"date":"2021-12-11T22:25:31","date_gmt":"2021-12-11T19:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-may-dip-into-recession-in-2022-economist-says\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-may-dip-into-recession-in-2022-economist-says","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11298\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus may dip into recession in 2022, economist says"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian government is expecting the economy to grow in 2022 and is planning to lower inflation despite Western sanctions and considerable debt repayments.   <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t The government projects economic growth of 2.9 percent and a rise of 6.3 percent in exports of goods and services. People\u2019s real income is expected to rise by 2 percent, while inflation is slated to be below 6 percent. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka issued an edict on December 9 to approve the plan. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Interestingly, the government\u2019s budget estimates are based on a more conservative growth estimate of 0.7 percent, as if officials do not believe that the targets are feasible. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The prime minister told lawmakers on December 10, that the lower estimate was used to avoid \u201cemergency measures for the budget\u2019s additional consolidation in the process of its execution.\u201d \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Raman Halo\u016d\u010danka said he is expecting a foreign trade surplus of up to $3 billion next year. Western sanctions will be offset by Belarus\u2019 increased presence in Russia, Asia and Africa, he said.\n<\/p>\n

Kruk: economy is likely to contract<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The government\u2019s plan is unrealistic in principle, said D\u017amitryj Kruk, of the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC). It is based on the most optimistic assumptions that the global economy will continue to recover rapidly amid excessive demand, he told BPN. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus has benefited from global logistical issues, he said, noting that the cost of transportation of goods from China to Europe has jumped fivefold. \u201cThat is a key factor of growth in Belarusian exports, including to Europe, considering the short distance,\u201d he said. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The terms of foreign trade are likely to be less favorable next year as global growth slows, demand shrinks and logistical problems are likely to be sorted out, he said\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Kruk said that the economy is likely to shrink by up to 2.5 percent as terms of trade become less favorable and Western sanctions take their toll.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If exports decline, \u201cthe government\u2019s plans will collapse like a house of cards because they are based on one key assumption that exports will be rising,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He added that the government may struggle to keep inflation under six percent in the face of external inflationary pressures.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The World Bank said that Belarus\u2019 economy is to contract by 2.8 percent in 2022. The Eurasian Bank said that Belarus may grow by 0.4 percent in 2022.\n<\/p>\n

Deeper in debt<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The government is to repay approximately 10 billion rubels ($4 billion) in debt next year, the finance minister said on December 10. That will be an increase of about 2 billion rubels from this year, Juryj Sieliversta\u016d said. \u201cWe are planning to work together with our colleagues from Russia to refinance part of the debt,\u201d he said. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus is to repay $3.7 billion to foreign creditors next year, said Lie\u016d \u0139vo\u016dski, of BEROC.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The government may spend $1.5 billion out of its foreign exchange reserves for the purpose, he noted. The reserves are projected to decrease to $7 billion from $8.5 billion.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Vladimir Putin said in Moscow on September 9 that Russia will offer Minsk $640 million in loans before the end of 2022. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus may have to borrow additional funds from Russia or the Russian-led Eurasian Stabilization and Development Fund to settle its obligations to creditors, \u0139vo\u016dski said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Debt repayments are also expected to be high in 2023, while Minsk has no one else to ask for loans except Russia, he said. \u201cBelarus has been in Russia\u2019s financial trap for quite a while and it is plunging deeper in debt.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian government is expecting the economy to grow in 2022 and is planning to lower inflation despite Western sanctions and considerable debt repayments.   The government projects economic growth of 2.9 percent and a rise of 6.3 percent in exports of goods and services. People\u2019s real income is expected to rise […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11298","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarus may dip into recession in 2022, economist says | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian government is expecting the economy to grow in 2022 and is planning to lower inflation despite Western\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11298\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarus may dip into recession in 2022, economist says | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By 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