{"id":11305,"date":"2021-12-16T20:10:57","date_gmt":"2021-12-16T17:10:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/minsk-expecting-concessions-from-moscow-in-return-for-anti-ukrainian-rhetoric\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"minsk-expecting-concessions-from-moscow-in-return-for-anti-ukrainian-rhetoric","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11305\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk expecting concessions from Moscow in return for anti-Ukrainian rhetoric"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Aliesin <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Minsk seeks to use tension between Moscow and Kyiv to exact economic concessions from Russia and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. Officials have played up military threat from Ukraine to rally the bureaucracy and ensure obedience to authority. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t Aliaksandr Valfovi\u010d, state secretary of the Security Council, said earlier this month that Kyiv\u2019s decision to hold large-scale maneuvers involving heavy weapons and planes at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border could spark a local armed conflict.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ukraine\u2019s security forces launched an operation called Polisse on November 24 to forestall a migrant crisis at the shared border with Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Response to migrants\u2019 attempts to cross into EU<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Ukraine has deployed about 8,500 troops and police officers to reinforce border patrol units, said Denys Monastyrskiy, the country\u2019s interior minister. The security forces will monitor potential illegal border-crossing routes. The operation involves 15 police helicopters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The small force and its equipment would not enough to attack Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, Valfovi\u010d cited a statement by the State Border Troops Committee alleging that Ukraine\u2019s Mi-8 helicopter violated the border and flew about one kilometer into the Belarusian territory on December 4. Minsk promised \u201can extremely tough response.”\n<\/p>\n

Minsk declares allegiance to Moscow<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t General Valfovi\u010d is known as a competent officer. He exaggerated Ukraine\u2019s threat to align his statement with the policy pursued by the Belarusian political leadership. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has expressed concern about military build-up around Belarus on a number of occasions in the last couple of months.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader said on November 29 that Minsk closely followed the Polisse drill and was ready to react if necessary.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cIf they [Kyiv] will set off a war in Donbas or elsewhere on the border with Russia, Belarus will not stay on the sidelines. It is clear what side Belarus will take,\u201d he warned.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A few days later, he told Dmitry Kisilev of Rossiya Segodnya that Minsk will stand by Russia economically, legally and politically if Ukraine attacks it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He said that Belarus and Russia will conduct a military exercise at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border within the next two months.\n<\/p>\n

Minsk seeking concessions<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka is hoping to secure considerable economic concessions and preferential treatment in return for his support of Russia\u2019s policy with regard to Ukraine. He drastically needs economic assistance to mitigate the effect of Western sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk would like Belarusian companies to compete for contracts to supply goods and services to Russian central and regional authorities. It seeks discounts for goods transit and pushes for equal energy prices for Belarusian and Russian business entities.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka\u2019s alarmist statements and the stirring up of military hysteria around Ukraine also help keep the vertical executive branch on its toes and instill and maintain obedience to authority.\n<\/p>\n

Minsk can step into the fray<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Maybe, Luka\u0161enka is not eager to get involved into a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the second largest market for Belarusian goods. Now that Baltic countries have moved to restrict Belarusian transits, Ukraine remains the only route to bypass Russia. In particular, Belarus has shipped crude oil from Azerbaijan through Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Still, any clash breaking out between Russia and Ukraine may pull Belarus into the fray.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Kyiv fears that Russia and Belarus may attack Ukraine from the Belarusian territory. Although analysts say that Minsk is unlikely to commit Belarusian forces to any Russian operation, Luka\u0161enka may do so if it helps him to stay in power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t From the military viewpoint, the woody and swampy terrain might complicate a hypothetical offensive against Ukraine from the Belarusian territory and give the defensive side an advantage, even if attacking forces considerably outnumber defending troops. A military operation\u2019s failure might undermine political stability both in Russia and Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Air, missile and rocket forces are likely to play a crucial role in a hypothetical armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Minsk cannot contribute a lot in terms of hardware, but it can offer airfields and launch positions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Aliesin Minsk seeks to use tension between Moscow and Kyiv to exact economic concessions from Russia and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. Officials have played up military threat from Ukraine to rally the bureaucracy and ensure obedience to authority. Aliaksandr Valfovi\u010d, state secretary of the Security Council, said earlier this month that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11305","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk expecting concessions from Moscow in return for anti-Ukrainian rhetoric | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Aliesin Minsk seeks to use tension between Moscow and Kyiv to exact economic concessions from Russia and mitigate the impact of Western\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11305\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Minsk expecting concessions from Moscow in return 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