{"id":11306,"date":"2021-12-18T00:23:26","date_gmt":"2021-12-17T21:23:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/new-government-sponsored-poll-dismissed-as-not-credible\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"new-government-sponsored-poll-dismissed-as-not-credible","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11306\/","title":{"rendered":"New government-sponsored poll dismissed as not credible"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n In the run-up to a constitutional referendum, authorities keep up attacks on opponents and try to sway the public opinion in their favor, including by claiming that Belarusians overwhelmingly support the Belarusian leader. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t New polling data show that more than 72 percent of Belarusians have trust in Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka and more than 63 percent are planning to vote in the constitutional referendum coming up in late February, according to state-controlled media. More than 58 percent said the country needed constitutional changes, state-controlled media reported. The Belarusian leader on December 16 said that authorities will soon publish the poll results.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The survey was reportedly conducted by the Sociology Institute of the National Academy of Sciences and EcooM, a private think tank linked to the government.\n<\/p>\n

Karbalievi\u010d: poll is not credible<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t \u201cThis is a sham survey; and more likely, a propaganda stunt,\u201d said Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, a Belarusian political analyst. He noted that authorities deliberately reported a huge sample of around 10,000 respondents to make their numbers shine. In addition, EcooM has a bad reputation in the research community, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Established in 2003, EcooM is one of few Belarusian think tanks licensed by the government to conduct election-related polls. Its surveys always produce numbers that are close to official results and conflict with surveys conducted by more reputable and more independent polling organizations.\n<\/p>\n

Kor\u0161una\u016d: Scale intended to impress audience<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t \u201cWe took various worker staffs, and people answered privately to many questions. According to my primary information, society has changed considerably since the last year,\u201d Luka\u0161enka said on December 6 about the poll. State media said that EcooM had surveyed 10,217 respondents from November 15 to December 4.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The sample exceeds standards almost tenfold, said Hiennadz Kor\u0161una\u016d, ex-head of the Sociology Institute, currently the director of the Belarusian Academy education program. A representative sample for Belarus is between 1000 and 1,500 respondents.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He noted that the pollsters interviewed only employed people, and therefore the sample did not include retired people and students.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Kor\u0161una\u016d said that the interviews might have been conducted at state-controlled enterprises by specially trained ideology officers and under their close supervision. In these circumstances, workers are unlikely to reply honestly, he added.\n<\/p>\n

Jelisieje\u016d: referendum turnout will be very low<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka claimed in an interview last month that 87 percent to 90 percent of Belarusians supported his policy. He repeatedly said recently that the public opinion has changed in favor of the government.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The large-scale survey produced a slightly lower support.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t From the sociological perspective, it would be extremely difficult to \u201ccook up\u201d a credible survey with 90 percent of trust in Luka\u0161enka because the level of trust is usually lower in cities than in the rural areas, said Andrej Jelisieje\u016d, of the Warsaw-based EAST think tank. If you make up 75 percent in Minsk, you would need to write up 90 percent in regional cities and more than 100 percent in small towns and rural areas.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The same is true for people ready to vote in the referendum. The actual turnout will be low, around 30 percent because the public has been intimidated, he noted. If authorities report a turnout of 60 percent to 70 percent, the number will be considerably overstated, he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He sees the large-scale survey as an attempt by the government to manipulate the public opinion.\n<\/p>\n

Magic numbers<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka told officials during his tour of the Vitsiebsk region on December 15 that the old \u201cauthoritarian\u201d constitution would remain in effect if voters do not support the new one.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The statement should not be seen as proof that he is little concerned about the outcome.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The official result is likely to be close to 80 percent, Karbalievi\u010d said. \u201cFor Belarus 80 percent is a sacred number that has been declared in every election.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka sees the referendum as an opportunity to bolster his legitimacy and will use the campaign to shore up support. He needs a very impressive result.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The central election commission\u2019s declaration of Luka\u0161enka\u2019s victory with 80 percent of the vote triggered mass protests across Belarus after the 2020 presidential election.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, street protests are unlikely during the referendum as unprecedented crackdown on dissidents continues unabated. However, the 80-percent support for Luka\u0161enka\u2019s constitution definitely will be a hard sell and a waste of propaganda effort.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN In the run-up to a constitutional referendum, authorities keep up attacks on opponents and try to sway the public opinion in their favor, including by claiming that Belarusians overwhelmingly support the Belarusian leader. New polling data show that more than 72 percent of Belarusians have trust in Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka and more […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11306","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNew government-sponsored poll dismissed as not credible | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN In the run-up to a constitutional referendum, authorities keep up attacks on opponents and try to sway the public opinion in\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11306\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New government-sponsored poll dismissed as not 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