{"id":11311,"date":"2021-12-22T01:57:44","date_gmt":"2021-12-21T22:57:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/moscow-unlikely-to-site-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-lukasenka-is-bluffing-analysts\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"moscow-unlikely-to-site-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-lukasenka-is-bluffing-analysts","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11311\/","title":{"rendered":"Moscow unlikely to site nuclear weapons in Belarus, Luka\u0161enka is bluffing \u2013 analysts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Recent statements by officials have fanned fears that Russia can deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus. Experts note that this is highly unlikely. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<p>\n\t Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka said last month that he would ask Vladimir Putin \u201cto return nuclear weapons to Belarus\u201d if NATO moves atomic missiles to Eastern Europe.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Uladzimir Makiej, Belarus\u2019 foreign minister, echoed that threat in an interview with RT Arabic last week. \u201cThis is one of possible responses to possible actions by the North Atlantic alliance on the territory of Poland.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Asked about the possibility of nuclear forces deployment to Belarus, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, said on December 20 that Russia would consider \u201cmost diverse options\u201d in response to NATO\u2019s deployments.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Andrzej Duda, the Polish president, said the same day that \u201cif Russia wants to site its missiles on the Belarusian territory it just can do it.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that Russia can do whatever it wants because \u201ctoday we can forget about any illusion of independence of Belarus.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Does Kremlin really need it?<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The transfer of nuclear weapons to Belarus is banned by the non-proliferation treaty, said Andrej Parotnika\u016d, of Belarus Security Blog.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cAny nuclear weapons based in Belarus would be under Moscow\u2019s exclusive control and command,\u201d he told <span>BPN<\/span>. Most importantly, Russia would have to establish a base or bases in Belarus to store its missiles here, he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, both Luka\u0161enka and Defense Minister Viktar Chrenin have repeatedly said that Belarus does not need Russian bases. General Chrenin said that in an interview to Al-Jazeera last month.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk uses combative rhetoric, hoping to force the West to engage in a dialogue, Parotnika\u016d said. \u201cA dialogue with the West on the Belarusian regime\u2019s conditions would clearly upgrade Minsk\u2019s status.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow has taken advantage of the Belarusian regime\u2019s vulnerability to \u201cdemonstrate and aggravate\u201d Minsk\u2019s dependence on Moscow in the area of regional security, he added.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Luka\u0161enka likely to seek control<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t If Russia sited nuclear weapons in Belarus, it would not be able to withdraw the arsenal for free, said Pavel Felgenauer, a Russian military analyst.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia has all the weapons that are currently missing in Belarus in its Kaliningrad exclave, and they are even better positioned than they would be in Belarus, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t A few months ago, Russia provided Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons to patrol skies over Belarus, he noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If Russia moves to deploy its nuclear weapons, Luka\u0161enka is likely to demand joint control, Felgenauer said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia would never give an unreliable and inconsistent partner access to part of its strategic arsenal, agreed Parotnika\u016d.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Remark may be out of date<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka made the statement in late November apparently in response to the NATO secretary general\u2019s remark about Germany\u2019s commitment to nuclear sharing in the context of power transition. Since the new German government has not refused to host U.S. atomic bombs on German soil, there is no need to move them to Poland, said Jahor Liebiadok, a Belarusian defense analyst, noting that the Belarusian leader\u2019s statement was already irrelevant when he made it.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka employs combative rhetoric to make himself look important in the eyes of the European Union, NATO and the United States. However, European politicians no longer take him seriously, as comments by Duda and Nauseda indicate.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t His rhetoric is seen as a sign of Minsk\u2019s increasing dependence on Moscow. Even the West seems to prefer to engage with Moscow on Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Recent statements by officials have fanned fears that Russia can deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus. Experts note that this is highly unlikely. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka said last month that he would ask Vladimir Putin \u201cto return nuclear weapons to Belarus\u201d if NATO moves atomic missiles to Eastern Europe. Uladzimir Makiej, Belarus\u2019 foreign [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11311","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Moscow unlikely to site nuclear weapons in Belarus, Luka\u0161enka is bluffing \u2013 analysts | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Recent statements by officials have fanned fears that Russia can deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus. 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