{"id":11313,"date":"2021-12-25T15:34:08","date_gmt":"2021-12-25T12:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-has-deal-with-putin-to-delay-power-transition-karbalievic\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-has-deal-with-putin-to-delay-power-transition-karbalievic","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11313\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka has deal with Putin to delay power transition \u2013 Karbalievi\u010d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>The planned appointment of Boris Gryzlov, a political heavyweight, as Russia\u2019s ambassador to Belarus is a sign that the Kremlin is focusing intently on the country. However, Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka seems to have a deal with Vladimir Putin to postpone power transition for a while. Moscow is unlikely to press ahead with its integration plans.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t A Russian Duma committee approved Gryzlov\u2019s candidacy on December 22.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The former Duma speaker and leader of the United Russia party, Gryzlov is said to be close to the Russian president.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Next level of control<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Moscow seeks to upgrade its diplomatic control of Belarus to bring it in line with the country\u2019s increased dependence on Russia, said Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, a prominent Belarusian political analyst.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Observers are expecting Gryzlov to be more assertive than his predecessor, Yevgeny Lukyanov.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In 2019, Luka\u0161enka forced Moscow to recall the authoritative Ambassador Mikhail Babich, a former KGB officer who criticized Minsk for its overreliance on Russian subsidies and called for deeper integration of the two countries.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Later the same year, the Belarusian leader refused to sign integration roadmaps proposed by Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka, however, has lost his footing after 2020 post-election protests. In major concessions to Moscow last month, he signed 28 integration programs and acknowledged Crimea Russia\u2019s territory.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk is likely to accept Gryzlov\u2019s appointment, but the new ambassador is unlikely to press ahead with Moscow\u2019s integration agenda.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIt does not make sense for Moscow to be pushy [in relations with Minsk]\u201d now that Putin has solved the 2024 problem (has found a way to extend his tenure after the two terms), Karbalievi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Macukievi\u010d: Fundamental policies depend on leaders<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Paviel Macukievi\u010d, a former Belarusian diplomat, warned against overestimating the role of ambassadors in Belarusian-Russian relations.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cFundamental issues depend on the two people, Luka\u0161enka and Putin,&#8221; he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He noted that Western sanctions have exacerbated Belarus\u2019 already heavy dependence on Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThe sixth package of EU sanctions would have a greater impact on integration processes between Belarus and Russia than the ambassador\u2019s name,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Putin\u2019s emphasis on economy<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Russian president noted at his December 23 news conference in Moscow that the level of integration between Belarus and Russia was much lower than between EU countries.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cI am not talking about a single currency. This is possibly a question for the future if our services find common ground on the matter. But we need to synchronize our legislations in the sphere of economy,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin\u2019s key objective is to tie Belarus to Russia to prevent it from drifting away, Karbalievi\u010d said. \u201cSome supranational agencies or mechanisms are not needed for it.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Luka\u0161enka is Moscow\u2019s only ally against West<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Some observers have speculated that Moscow would like to see the back of Luka\u0161enka in order to alleviate Belarus\u2019 political crisis.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, Luka\u0161enka has regained confidence and seems determined to see out his term running until mid 2025.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow is unlikely to put pressure on him to step down, Karbalievi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cLuka\u0161enka said recently that he had decided against holding an early presidential election. I suppose he made that statement because Russia no longer insists on it,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka is Russia\u2019s only ally in its standoff with the West, he added.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Kremlin\u2019s limited options<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Kremlin is likely to stand by Luka\u0161enka now that he has managed to suppress public protests.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ideally, it might want to see a less toxic figure in charge of Belarus. Putin admitted on December 23 that Luka\u0161enka and his team were tough negotiators.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow has not found anyone to replace Luka\u0161enka, and most importantly, it would find it difficult to install its prot\u00e9g\u00e9 because the Belarusian strongman keeps a tight grip on power.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka has put former presidential hopefuls Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski and Viktar Babaryka in prison. Both were labeled by authorities pro-Russian candidates in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin cannot impose economic sanctions on Belarus over Luka\u0161enka\u2019s recalcitrance because Moscow has been criticizing the West for its sanctions. He cannot send troops to invade Belarus because such an operation would be costly and fraught with multiple risks.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow cannot even reject Minsk\u2019s recent request for a $3.5 billion loan because the latter may default on its debt to Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, the complicated game is played by Luka\u0161enka and Putin, and the ambassador\u2019s role should not be exaggerated.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The planned appointment of Boris Gryzlov, a political heavyweight, as Russia\u2019s ambassador to Belarus is a sign that the Kremlin is focusing intently on the country. However, Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka seems to have a deal with Vladimir Putin to postpone power transition for a while. Moscow is unlikely to press ahead with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11313","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Luka\u0161enka has deal with Putin to delay power transition \u2013 Karbalievi\u010d | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The planned appointment of Boris Gryzlov, a political heavyweight, as Russia\u2019s ambassador to Belarus is a sign that the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11313\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" 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