{"id":11314,"date":"2021-12-26T03:51:52","date_gmt":"2021-12-26T00:51:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusian-regime-unlikely-to-hold-out-relying-on-oppression-only\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusian-regime-unlikely-to-hold-out-relying-on-oppression-only","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11314\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian regime unlikely to hold out, relying on oppression only"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian regime is locked in a cycle of oppression. It cannot stop persecuting dissidents for fear of social unrest, while the continuing crackdown further undermines its legitimacy and already has triggered a severe brain drain.  <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

Two pillars are shaky<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t The authoritarian regime is based on three pillars: 1) legitimacy (public support and (or) economic success), 2) a cruel exercise of authority \u0438 3) the loyalty of the elite (especially economists, technocrats and security forces).\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka did not have any problems with any of these pillars in the first 10-15 years of his rule as long as opponents\u2019 poll numbers lingered in single digits. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The regime provided security and economic growth in return for voters\u2019 non-interference in politics. It persecuted only most outspoken critics. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka saw his public support fall between 2014 and 2019 as economic growth slowed down. The government took economic liberalization measures to spur the economy and strengthened ties with the West, taking advantage of tensions between Russia and Ukraine. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t In 2020 and 2021: \n<\/p>\n

\n\t a) Real support for Luka\u0161enka plunged to 20 percent to 30 percent, according to various polls. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t b) His political opponents Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja and Viktar Babaryka were at least as recognizable as Luka\u0161enka. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t c) Some opponents were more popular than Luka\u0161enka. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t d) The government failed to meet the terms of its social contract: economic growth had been unsustainable, economic liberalization measures were reversed, and the government has become an international pariah. Luka\u0161enka\u2019s failure to respond effectively to COVID-19 outbreaks and his wrangling with neighbors have undermined the country\u2019s stability and security.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The regime\u2019s legitimacy is now in tatters. The third pillar remains quite solid, although it has also eroded as a result of brain drain and purges within the system. Luka\u0161enka opted to rely on the second pillar by unleashing a large-scale crackdown on his opponents. \n<\/p>\n

Oppressive system not resilient<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t Authoritarian governments differ in the degree of violence and brutality.  \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Authorities in Myanmar killed 1,245 protesters in 10 months of protests that followed the February 2021 military coup. Authorities in Singapore made 1,315 politically motivated arrests from 1950 to 2015 (65 years), and three people died there as a result of political persecution. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian regime was similar to that of Singapore from 2015 to 2019, but in 2020 and 2021 it took a sharp turn toward Stalinism. It has not executed its opponents, and it is unlikely to do so. Still, the authoritarian regime with elements of terror is more similar to Myanmar\u2019s than to Singapore\u2019s. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t The regime fully relies on its security forces for its survival. At least 460 security officers resigned within the first three months after the 2020 presidential election, according to Jarasla\u016d Licha\u010de\u016dski, co-founder of BySOL. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some officers have been sacked on suspicion of disloyalty. But the regime can ill-afford large-scale purges in the law-enforcement system. Luka\u0161enka on December 16 indicated his intention to keep purges in check.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Obviously, there are still disloyal officers in the law enforcement agencies. Of 127 respondents interviewed by Chatham House, 16 percent said they knew some people serving in law enforcement agencies. Thirty-two percent of them said their friends\/people they knew did not support the regime, 42 percent said that those people were not happy with methods used in the crackdown on peaceful protesters, and 55 percent said that they would not shoot at peaceful protesters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, 45 percent said their friends\/people they knew backed the regime, 37 percent said that those people approved of the methods used to disperse protests, and 14 percent said they were ready to shoot at protesters.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The loyalty of armed forces should not be taken for granted. The armed forces play an inferior role in the government system. Defense spending in Belarus is lower than spending on the law enforcement and internal security agencies. Some former officers expressed concern about underfunding in their posts at Voyenno Politicheskoye Obozreniye, a website controlled by the authorities. \n<\/p>\n

Can regime hold out?<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t Some regimes, including Stalinism, the Mao system and the Kim dynasty, survived for decades, mainly relying on the second pillar. But these are more an exception than the rule. In the 21st century, it would be difficult for an authoritarian government in a country with an open economy and educated society to hold on to power for years, relying on intimidation only. \n<\/p>\n

\n\t To reset the system, the Belarusian regime needs to restore its legitimacy (at least through economic growth) and stop the brain drain.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Its future is uncertain. It may be too late to reset the system because the regime is already locked in the cycle of oppression. If it suspends the crackdown it may face popular uprisings, if it continues with the crackdown, it may lose the rest of its legitimacy and key professionals, and eventually collapse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies The Belarusian regime is locked in a cycle of oppression. It cannot stop persecuting dissidents for fear of social unrest, while the continuing crackdown further undermines its legitimacy and already has triggered a severe brain drain.  Two pillars are shaky The authoritarian regime is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11314","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarusian regime unlikely to hold out, relying on oppression only | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies The Belarusian regime is locked in a cycle of oppression. 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