{"id":113205,"date":"2024-11-11T11:12:12","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T08:12:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/113205\/"},"modified":"2024-11-11T11:12:13","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T08:12:13","slug":"lukasenka-praises-trump-signals-desire-for-us-relations","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/113205\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka praises Trump, signals desire for US relations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka praised Donald Trump\u2019s assertive leadership style, noting similarities between himself and the US president-elect. However, the Belarusian strongman remains too insignificant at the international stage to capture Trump\u2019s attention.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka showing a wood-chopping masterclass\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (BelTA)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka pins hopes on Trump<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTrump is mighty. No matter how I feel about him, he\u2019s done well. It was hard to believe he could win. They shot at him, put pressure on him, wanted to put him in jail, etc. Still, he went through like a bulldozer,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka said on November 7 at a wood-chopping competition among media workers near Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka described Trump as an \u201coutstanding capitalist\u201d and a \u201cbillionaire.\u201d He pins hopes on Trump\u2019s pragmatism, which focuses more on deal-making than promoting liberal values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the question remains: what does \u0141uka\u0161enka have to offer? In a recent propaganda video, Minsk hinted it might be willing to negotiate the release of Juryj Ziankovi\u010d, a US lawyer imprisoned in Belarus. Belarus also holds several journalists who worked for RFE\/RL<\/em>, a project funded by the US Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, the mass release of political prisoners\u2014a move that could facilitate rapprochement with the United States\u2014remains problematic for \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk hopes that Trump will persuade Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate a peace deal with Russia on terms unfavorable to Ukraine. Such an agreement could weaken Ukraine\u2019s position while strengthening Moscow\u2019s and Minsk\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka might even have a chance to participate in negotiations over Ukraine. He noted that Trump had pledged to end wars, including the conflict in Ukraine. If Trump succeeds, the Belarusian leader said, he would nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That remark was particularly cynical, coming from a leader who imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ale\u015b Bialacki and forced Nobel Literature Prize laureate Sviat\u0142ana Aleksijevi\u010d into exile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka also cited Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as an example for the Belarusian opposition on how to concede defeat. His comparison was unfortunate for Trump, who instigated the storming of the US Capitol after his loss in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Capitol incident underscored Trump\u2019s unpredictability, which could bring unpleasant surprises for both Moscow and Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Behind-the-Scenes Talks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler could benefit from improved relations with the West, especially the United States. He has delegated this task to Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has dropped hints about his behind-the-scenes contacts with Western diplomats, possibly including Kevin Doyle of the US State Department, who was spotted in Minsk last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senior US officials also visited Minsk during Trump\u2019s first term: National Security Adviser John Bolton in 2019 and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka was flattered by the attention. At that time, Minsk had fallen out with Moscow, and Washington sought to draw Belarus closer by offering oil, even sending a couple of tankers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Minsk\u2019s current ties to the Kremlin make dealings with the West unlikely, given \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s reputation as a Russian puppet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, \u0141uka\u0161enka continues to send signals to Western politicians. This week, he pardoned 31 more political prisoners, likely a result of the behind-the-scenes negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wood-chopping competition highlight import substitution problems<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On November 7, \u0141uka\u0161enka gave a “master class” in firewood chopping, according to state media. The event was part of his re-election campaign, aimed at demonstrating his good physical condition amid rumors about his health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also showcased a new Belarusian axe made to his specifications. \u201cIt\u2019s a little heavier than the imported ones,\u201d he remarked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The challenges of import substitution are apparent, primarily due to the strained relations with the West, on which Belarus depends heavily for its economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Complete substitution is impossible, despite attempts to redirect trade from Western markets to Russia and the Global South. The Belarusian economy is now heavily tied to Russia, which has increased the country\u2019s political dependence on the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While \u0141uka\u0161enka claims that Western sanctions have helped Belarus enter new markets, he has, in rare moments of honesty, described the restrictions as \u201cfascist.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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