{"id":11322,"date":"2022-01-04T19:11:03","date_gmt":"2022-01-04T16:11:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-has-economic-safety-buffer-moscows-backing-mitigates-sanctions\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-has-economic-safety-buffer-moscows-backing-mitigates-sanctions","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11322\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus has economic safety buffer, Moscow\u2019s backing mitigates sanctions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN <\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n The Belarusian economy is unlikely to collapse this year, but it may struggle and recession is quite possible, economists say. Moscow is expected to issue new loans to help Minsk repay its debts. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t Some Belarusian officials credited economic sanctions for economic growth of about two percent in 2021.\n<\/p>\n

\n

\n Rise in exports in 2021 <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\n\t Western economic sanctions have failed to make an impact so far. Belarus\u2019 economy was propelled by export growth last year amid brisk global demand and a rise in commodity prices.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Foreign currency revenues from goods exports propped up the Belarusian rubel. In addition, Minsk received considerable economic support from Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Still, Belarus has a low economic potential, said Kaciaryna Barnukova, director of the Kyiv-based Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Even if exports keep rising at the same pace, the economy is unlikely to grow by more than 1.5 percent, she told BPN, adding that Western sanctions may offset that growth or cause the economy to contract by around one percent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Vadzim Iosub, an Alpari Eurasia senior analyst, said the Belarus economy is likely to shrink by 0.5 to 3 percent in 2022. It is unclear whether Western sanctions will have an impact because they might be interpreted in different ways by third countries. It is also unclear whether the mechanism of secondary sanctions will be employed, he said.\n<\/p>\n

Loans<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Last year Minsk filed an application with the Moscow-led Eurasian Stabilization and Development Fund (ESDF) for an $3.5 billion loan. In addition, it expects up to $640 million in loans from Moscow this year.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If the ESDF grants the request, it is unlikely to make the entire amount available in 2022, Barnukova said. It may also reduce the loan amount.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow will provide financial assistance as the need arises, she added. But it will use the loans as a tool of political influence.\n<\/p>\n

Economic reforms not expected<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian government is unlikely to follow through with reforms this year to restructure inefficient state enterprises, attract investment and spur private sector growth.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has always been wary of market-oriented changes. Moreover, he suspects that private sector workers were a driving force of the 2020 post-election protests. The government moved to roll back economic freedoms last year.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Its suspicious attitude foreign-owned and private businesses has not changed, Barnukova said. \u201cLiberalization is now out of the question.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The government experimented with price controls in 2021. This year it has introduced new taxes that \u201care unfriendly toward businesses.\u201d The government is likely to be more hostile toward the private sector, she added.\n<\/p>\n

Economic collapse unlikely<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The government’s political considerations take precedence over economic necessity. The regime does not worry about the prospect of stagnation as long as economic restrictions help it control society.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, the economic momentum gained in 2021 will enable Belarus to avoid a sharp downturn in 2022, Iosub said. The Belarusian currency is unlikely to melt down, but it may depreciate by 10 percent this year, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian economy has a certain safety buffer. Although the West may tighten sanctions, the regime is unlikely to collapse as long as Moscow backs it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian economy is unlikely to collapse this year, but it may struggle and recession is quite possible, economists say. Moscow is expected to issue new loans to help Minsk repay its debts. Some Belarusian officials credited economic sanctions for economic growth of about two percent in 2021. Rise in exports […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11322","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarus has economic safety buffer, Moscow\u2019s backing mitigates sanctions | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Belarusian economy is unlikely to collapse this year, but it may struggle and recession is quite possible, economists\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11322\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarus has economic safety buffer, Moscow\u2019s backing mitigates sanctions | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta 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