{"id":11325,"date":"2022-01-08T01:30:58","date_gmt":"2022-01-07T22:30:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/kazakhstan-unrest-may-prompt-lukasenka-to-cancel-referendum-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"kazakhstan-unrest-may-prompt-lukasenka-to-cancel-referendum-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11325\/","title":{"rendered":"Kazakhstan unrest may prompt Luka\u0161enka to cancel referendum &#8211; analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p> <span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Kazakhstan\u2019s revolt may strengthen Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s belief that violence and intimidation is the only way to deal with his opponents. On the other hand, it may sow seeds of insecurity among members of his guard. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<p>\n\t President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has sacked the cabinet, announced a price cap on vehicle fuel and promised political reform. Most importantly, he has dismissed Nursultan Nazarbayev as chairman of the Security Council.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Belarusian ruler relies on force<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u201cAs for the use of force [against protesters], Luka\u0161enka has never hesitated for a second and will not hesitate. He thinks he has done everything right because this is his political style. He does not know any other methods of holding on to power,\u201d said Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, a Belarusian political analyst.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Anatol Kota\u016d, a former official of Luka\u0161enka\u2019s Presidential Administration, agreed. Luka\u0161enka is confident that of all officials who were about to lose their seats he is the only one who has done everything right to remain in power, he told BPN. He strongly believes that there is no need to engage with the public, Kota\u016d added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Other officials may not be so sure about Luka\u0161enka\u2019s methods. They might be thinking that Luka\u0161enka might get rid of them during a crisis like Tokayev \u201chas gotten rid of Nazarbayev\u2019s guard on the wave of public protests,\u201d Kota\u016d said. \u201cSenior officials may draw the conclusion that in a situation of duality of power, their positions may become very shaky.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Power transition may not play out well<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Power transition under an authoritarian regime always ends in a crisis, Karbalievi\u010d said. Nazarbayev attempted to control the process but it has spiraled out of control. \u201cTokayev has sacrificed Nazarbayev to keep power,\u201d he added. The Kazakh president may soon distance himself from his predecessor and may even condemn Nazarbayev\u2019s cult of personality.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cFor Luka\u0161enka it was a lesson how power transition may play out,\u201d Karbalievi\u010d said, referring to Belarus\u2019 planned constitutional reform that would establish a second center of power. Legal and personal guarantees [for the outgoing leader] do not work during authoritarian power transition, he noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Both Karbalievi\u010d and Kota\u016d pointed out that Luka\u0161enka might cancel the constitutional referendum scheduled for late February and try to stay in office as long as he can.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Crackdown to continue, Luka\u0161enka may preside over two branches<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Although the Belarusian ruler is not in a rush to transfer power to a successor, he is likely to go ahead with the referendum. He would not want to be perceived is a weak leader, and he would simply comply with Moscow\u2019s wishes (Moscow is said to be looking forward to political reform in Belarus).\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He will delay political reform as long as possible and try to see out his current term that runs until mid-2025. Moreover, the new constitution would allow him to run for two more presidential terms.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In addition, he may take charge of the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly to consolidate his grip on power.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Kazakhstan unrest is likely to strengthen his belief that he should be tough on opponents. He is likely to continue cementing his totalitarian regime. He is unlikely to release political prisoners, nor is he likely to engage with the West.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Any political reform is fraught with risks for Luka\u0161enka. He can never be absolutely sure of officials\u2019 fealty and he always fears that Moscow is planning something behind his back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Kazakhstan\u2019s revolt may strengthen Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s belief that violence and intimidation is the only way to deal with his opponents. On the other hand, it may sow seeds of insecurity among members of his guard. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has sacked the cabinet, announced a price cap on vehicle fuel and promised [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11325","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Kazakhstan unrest may prompt Luka\u0161enka to cancel referendum - analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Kazakhstan\u2019s revolt may strengthen Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s belief that violence and intimidation is the only way to deal with\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11325\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kazakhstan unrest may prompt Luka\u0161enka to cancel referendum - analysis | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Kazakhstan\u2019s revolt may strengthen Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s belief that violence and intimidation is the only way to deal with\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11325\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11325\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11325\/\"},\"headline\":\"Kazakhstan unrest may prompt Luka\u0161enka to cancel referendum &#8211; 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