{"id":11330,"date":"2022-01-16T01:34:17","date_gmt":"2022-01-15T22:34:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/sanctions-to-reflect-on-belaruskalis-profit-margins-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"sanctions-to-reflect-on-belaruskalis-profit-margins-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11330\/","title":{"rendered":"Sanctions to reflect on Belaruskali\u2019s profit margins &#8211; analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Lithuania\u2019s attempt to suspend Belarusian potash transits may prompt Belaruskali to set up front companies or turn to Russia for help. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<p>\n\t Lithuania\u2019s LTG is set to terminate its rail transport contract with Belarus\u2019 potash giant as part of international sanctions against the country\u2019s authoritarian government targeted for alleged human rights abuses. About 10 competitors may be willing to fill the gap, said Marius Skuodis, Lithuania\u2019s transport minister. He added that non-blacklisted companies can approach LTG Cargo for its services.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Transits may continue<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Some Lithuanian businesses are unwilling to comply with international sanctions and some Lithuanian politicians protect the interests of these businesses, Lie\u016d \u0139vo\u016dski, of the Kyiv-based Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center, told BPN. \u201cThere are other politicians who think more about the political standoff with the Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka regime,\u201d he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Lithuania will keep looking for legal grounds to continue transits, said Taciana Manionak, a Belarusian energy and potassium market expert. The Lithuanians had fought hard to win that lucrative contract, she noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThis is an effective route, most attractive to Belaruskali logistically. Besides, Belarus co-owns a bulk cargo terminal at the Port of Klaipeda,\u201d Manionak told <span>BPN<\/span>.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Under the contract, which is about to be terminated, Belaruskali was supposed to ship up to 11 million tons of potash fertilizers via the Port of Klaipeda. The company planned to increase exports to 15 million tons a year in 2025.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Debate over the issue is said to continue in the Lithuanian government. \u201cThey may find a way to ship goods through an intermediary or a new company to bypass sanctions,\u201d Manionak said.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Russia to offer help<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Although Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, said on January 13 that Russia will \u201cstand by\u201d Belarus in the face of sanctions, the Kremlin \u201chas not replied to the question as to whether Russia is ready to redirect Belarusian potash transits to its territory,\u201d TASS reported.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Vladimir Putin met with Dmitry Mazepin, CEO of Uralchem and deputy chairman of the board of Russia\u2019s potash giant Uralkali, on the same day. Russia and Belarus control about 18 percent of the global potash market dominated by Canada with 30%, Russian media quoted Mazepin as saying. It is unclear whether Putin and Mazepin discussed possible export routes for Belarusian fertilizers.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Mazepin\u2019s company owns port terminals in the Leningrad region.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia is short of capacity to handle big volumes of Belarusian fertilizers, Manionak said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t About 18 months ago, Belarusian Potash Company, Belaruskali\u2019s subsidiary, shipped crop nutrients via Murmansk using the Northern Sea Route. However, it can be navigated only in summer when Arctic waters are free of ice, otherwise ice breakers are required. The route is mainly used for shipping goods to China and India.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Washington added Belarusian Potash Company to its blacklist in December.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Possible link-up with Uralkali<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Russia\u2019s Uralkali can take advantage of the sanctions to grow its market share at Belaruskali\u2019s expense, social media users speculated. The two companies had operated a joint trading arm for several years but Uralkali pulled out after a major dispute.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Russian government is likely to offer Belaruskali help for political reasons, Manionak said, noting that Belaruskali may set up a joint company with Uralkali.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cIf Western sanctions are administered very seriously,\u201d the Russian partner may have a problem, she added. There are few players on the potash market and it would be easy to trace the origin of commodities, she said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Anyway, Belarusian Potash Company faces the challenge of finding a new route and remain competitive in the market, Manionak said. Demand and prices for potash fertilizers are high, so the company can afford additional costs, she noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belaruskali will see its profit margins shrink as a result of Western sanctions, \u0139vo\u016dski said and added that Uralkali is unlikely to help it free of charge.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belaruskali can contract Russian shipping companies and ports to deliver its fertilizers to customers or sell its fertilizers to Uralkali at a discount, he noted.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Will Minsk strike back?<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka said last month that Belarus could block transits from Ukraine to Lithuania in response to Western sanctions. Minsk may also suspend shipments of goods and raw materials to Lithuanian companies for processing, Raman Halo\u016d\u010danka, Belarus\u2019 prime minister, said last month.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cAny attempt to punish Lithuania will be a heavier economic punishment for Belarus itself,\u201d \u0139vo\u016dski said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Lithuania\u2019s attempt to suspend Belarusian potash transits may prompt Belaruskali to set up front companies or turn to Russia for help. Lithuania\u2019s LTG is set to terminate its rail transport contract with Belarus\u2019 potash giant as part of international sanctions against the country\u2019s authoritarian government targeted for alleged human rights abuses. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11330","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sanctions to reflect on Belaruskali\u2019s profit margins - analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Lithuania\u2019s attempt to suspend Belarusian potash transits may prompt Belaruskali to set up front companies or turn to Russia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11330\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sanctions to reflect on Belaruskali\u2019s profit margins - analysis | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Lithuania\u2019s attempt to suspend Belarusian potash transits may prompt Belaruskali to set up front companies or turn to Russia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11330\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-24T20:29:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11330\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11330\/\"},\"headline\":\"Sanctions to reflect on Belaruskali\u2019s profit margins &#8211; 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