{"id":11333,"date":"2022-01-18T05:35:46","date_gmt":"2022-01-18T02:35:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/kremlin-cautious-does-not-rush-pliant-lukasenka\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"kremlin-cautious-does-not-rush-pliant-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11333\/","title":{"rendered":"Kremlin cautious, does not rush pliant Luka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Moscow\u2019s appointment of Boris Gryzlov as ambassador to Belarus is not indicative of the Kremlin\u2019s determination to accelerate integration of Belarus and Russia. Nor is it characteristic of its desire to speed up Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s exit. Moscow considers Belarus an important ally and does not want to rush things.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Vladimir Putin signed Gryzlov\u2019s appointment on January 14, the day after Minsk approved the candidacy.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Reward for loyalty<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Gryzlov is no longer a political heavyweight. He might be a heavyweight in the past when he served as interior minister and the Duma speaker. He has been less influential in the last few years.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He took over as Russia\u2019s authorized representative to the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine in 2015. The group\u2019s work has been paralyzed in the last few years.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Gryzlov, 71, an uncharismatic but hardworking and loyal bureaucrat, was Vladimir Putin\u2019s colleague back in the days when the latter was making his career in Saint-Petersburg. The appointment might be a reward for his loyalty and service. The job is quite prestigious and not very difficult or challenging.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Kremlin does not need an assertive figure<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Ambassadors do not usually play a big role in Belarusian-Russian relations. Luka\u0161enka and Putin usually sort out major issues between themselves, while government officials and agencies deal with technicalities.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin does not need to put much pressure on Luka\u0161enka as long as he complies with the Kremlin\u2019s wishes. After the August 2020 protests, he has signed 28 integration programs, recognized Crimea as Russia\u2019s territory, approved increased Russian military presence in Belarus and engaged in hostile rhetoric toward Kyiv.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The aggressive style of Mikhail Babich, Russia\u2019s ambassador in Belarus in 2018 and 2019 (who was eventually forced to leave Minsk) was not so much attributable to the diplomat\u2019s style but to the Kremlin\u2019s push for integration of Belarus and Russia. Analysts said at the time the Putin was eager to annex Belarus to Russia as a means to stay in power after the end of his second term in 2024.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin has solved the 2024 problem for himself by resetting his presidential terms to zero.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Moscow prepared to wait<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Moscow has not given up attempts to deepen its footprint in Belarus. But it has decided not to rush things.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin remembers that Luka\u0161enka snubbed him in late 2019 by rejecting Moscow\u2019s roadmaps aimed at \u201cdeeper integration.\u201d Obviously, the Belarusian leader is not in a position to put up much resistance now, but he can dig in his heels against what he views as the weakening of his power. Besides, the Kremlin\u2019s expansion plans for Belarus are likely to meet with resistance from the West.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The theory that Gryzlov has a mission to direct Belarus\u2019 constitutional reform and monitor power transition in the country seems far-fetched.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Firstly, Luka\u0161enka would discuss his departure only with Putin face to face. And secondly, Luka\u0161enka must have persuaded Putin to postpone or call off power transition in Belarus. The Kazakhstan unrest has served as a warning to both leaders against rushing change.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka has been trying hard to prove to the Kremlin that he is indispensable. Despite his toxicity and recalcitrance, he suits Putin. Moscow is cautious not to launch risky operations in Belarus because it needs Minsk\u2019s support amid tension with the West.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, Gryzlov, a former political heavyweight, can work quietly in Belarus until his retirement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Moscow\u2019s appointment of Boris Gryzlov as ambassador to Belarus is not indicative of the Kremlin\u2019s determination to accelerate integration of Belarus and Russia. Nor is it characteristic of its desire to speed up Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s exit. Moscow considers Belarus an important ally and does not want to rush things. Vladimir Putin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11333","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Kremlin cautious, does not rush pliant Luka\u0161enka | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Moscow\u2019s appointment of Boris Gryzlov as ambassador to Belarus is not indicative of the Kremlin\u2019s determination to\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11333\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kremlin cautious, 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