{"id":11334,"date":"2022-01-18T15:19:25","date_gmt":"2022-01-18T12:19:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-maneuvers-kremlin-flexes-muscles-lukasenka-invites-russian-troops\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-maneuvers-kremlin-flexes-muscles-lukasenka-invites-russian-troops","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11334\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus maneuvers: Kremlin flexes muscles, Luka\u0161enka invites Russian troops"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has been responsive to the Kremlin\u2019s wishes. Now that Russian forces have amassed east and north of Ukraine, the Belarusian ruler has offered his country\u2019s territory for joint maneuvers that are likely to heighten tension around Ukraine. He is expecting Vladimir Putin to reciprocate with generous support.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka on January 17 approved the synopsis of a non-routine exercise called Union Determination 2022 scheduled to take place in southern and western Belarus in February.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He cited military threats from NATO and Ukraine as a pretext for the drill. But his explanations are not convincing. The scale of NATO buildup is not as extensive as to suspect any aggressive intentions. Poland and Ukraine had sent reinforcements to the shared border with Belarus in response to a migrant crisis.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow and Minsk seem to escalate tension deliberately to achieve their internal and foreign policy objectives.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Exercise to keep NATO, Ukraine on their toes<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The war game is part of Moscow\u2019s \u201cmilitary and military-technical\u201d response to NATO\u2019s refusal to answer Russian demands for security assurances, mainly the alliance\u2019s refusal to pledge not to admit Ukraine to the bloc, said Aliaksandr Aliesin, a Belarusian defense analyst.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin does not seem to plan a direct invasion, he said. His tactic is to destabilize Ukraine using hybrid methods as he seeks to discourage the Ukrainian elite from applying for membership of the alliance.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka has taken advantage of the crisis to persuade Putin to supply Belarus with state-of-the-art military equipment and provide financial and economic assistance that could help his regime survive in the face of Western sanctions.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Luka\u0161enka proves his worth to Kremlin<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian leader used the expression \u201cBelarusian balcony\u201d when he was discussing the synopsis with generals on January 17. He sought to emphasize the strategic importance of the Belarusian outpost for Russia. Generals believe that if Russia loses that \u201cbalcony\u201d NATO forces may advance to Russia\u2019s western border to close in on Smolensk.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka has managed to prove to the Kremlin that he is irreplaceable and indispensable. Moscow seems to have eased pressure on him to devise a power transition plan. Earlier this month, Luka\u0161enka helped Putin to secure support for and plan a Collective Security Treaty Organization peacekeeping mission to Kazakhstan.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The Belarusian ruler may be obstinate and toxic, but Putin prefers to have him in charge of Belarus because Luka\u0161enka has no one else to turn to for assistance except Russia after his August 2020 disputed re-election.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Timing<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The exercise may be timed to coincide with Belarus\u2019 constitutional referendum scheduled for February.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, Luka\u0161enka does not seem to view Russian military presence as an additional security guarantee in the event of political unrest in his country. He managed to suppress the 2020 uprising using Belarusian security forces at his disposal, although his position was quite shaky at the time.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Large-scale protests are unlikely in February as the Luka\u0161enka government continues its massive crackdown on dissent. Belarusians are afraid to like posts on Facebook, so they are unlikely to take to the street with white-red-white flags to demonstrate. The opposition\u2019s plan to disrupt the referendum is doomed to failure in this atmosphere of fear.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Besides, Russian troops that will arrive for the exercise are not trained to suppress public unrest.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The deployment is of symbolic significance for Luka\u0161enka. This is his opportunity to show to the public and security forces that he enjoys the Kremlin\u2019s support and that he is still strong and invincible.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has been responsive to the Kremlin\u2019s wishes. Now that Russian forces have amassed east and north of Ukraine, the Belarusian ruler has offered his country\u2019s territory for joint maneuvers that are likely to heighten tension around Ukraine. He is expecting Vladimir Putin to reciprocate with generous support. Luka\u0161enka on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11334","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarus maneuvers: Kremlin flexes muscles, Luka\u0161enka invites Russian troops | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has been responsive to the Kremlin\u2019s wishes. 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