{"id":11335,"date":"2022-01-18T20:07:22","date_gmt":"2022-01-18T17:07:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-set-to-govern-as-long-as-fit\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-set-to-govern-as-long-as-fit","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11335\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka set to govern as long as fit"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n The key lesson Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has learned from the Kazakhstan crisis is that he cannot trust anyone. He is likely to delay power transition indefinitely. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka has always been reluctant to give more powers to anyone, including members of his ruling elite. He has blocked proposals for establishing a ruling party from the leadership of the pro-government Belaja Rus association, for giving more powers to the Council of Ministers from his Presidential Administration, and for empowering the dormant elected institutions. He blocked political reform even after he had told officials to start planning.\n<\/p>\n

Talk of departure<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t After the 1996 constitutional referendum that gave him sweeping powers, Luka\u0161enka said in a conversation with Hans-Georg Wieck, head of the OSCE advisory and monitoring group at the time, that he will rewrite the constitution before his departure to limit presidential power. \u201cDo you think I will leave this constitution to my successor?\u201d he questioned.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He has brought up the issue of power redistribution several times since then, but was not very specific.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In March 2018, he tasked the Constitutional Court with drafting constitutional amendments. But a few weeks later after a velvet revolution triumphed in Armenia, he claimed in his April 24 annual address that constitutional reform was an idea planted by his opponents, and pretended that he had never considered holding a referendum. \u201cOr it will be like in Armenia yesterday,\u201d he warned.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t During his meeting with Luka\u0161enka in Sochi on September 14, 2020, Vladimir Putin welcomed the announcement by a Belarusian envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe of Minsk\u2019s decision to draft a new constitution. The government set up \u201cdialog platforms\u201d to collect proposals on changes to the basic law.\n<\/p>\n

Draft constitution allows Luka\u0161enka to play for time<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Minsk published the draft on December 27, the day before Luka\u0161enka\u2019s meeting with Putin. It contains references to a law governing the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, which has yet to be drafted. If the constitution is enacted, the assembly would have the power to veto decisions of all other branches, except for the judiciary.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The law drafting process may take up to 18 months. Therefore, Luka\u0161enka is unlikely to delegate any of his powers before the 2025 presidential election and can now put the political reform on hold.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t That bill drafters failed to prepare the law governing the assembly was not an incidental omission. That was a deliberate lack of action to delay political reform.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Vadzim Ipata\u016d, director of the National Center for Law Drafting and Legal Studies, told BelTA that changes to the constitution would be a vaccine against revolutions. He added that the constitution would establish a mechanism to prevent the branches of power from making decisions detrimental to the country\u2019s sovereignty.\n<\/p>\n

No successor in sight<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The assembly, a superstructure that would oversee other branches, would be a secondary landing site for Luka\u0161enka after his unlikely departure. He would automatically become its member on leaving his office. But he can also preside over it without leaving office. This would enable him to delay a decision on power transition indefinitely.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t There have been several examples of managed power transfer in the Commonwealth of Independent States, from Boris Yeltsin to Putin, from Putin to Dmitry Medvedev, from Medvedev to Putin (Russia), from Heydar Aliyev to his son Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan), and from Nursultan Nazarbayev to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (Kazakhstan).\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Medvedev just kept the seat warm for Putin, while in all other cases the transfer was irreversible. In Kazakhstan, the successor was accountable to Nazarbayev, who headed the Security Council. Tokayev took advantage of January 2022 riots to take over power. Time will tell whether his government will be committed to its ownership guarantees to Nazarbayev\u2019s family after the former president\u2019s retirement.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t There was a redistribution of wealth in Russia after Yeltsin\u2019s departure. The same process is possible in Kazakhstan.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The heads of state in the above-mentioned countries play the role of superior judges for former rulers, their families and clans. Luka\u0161enka, who has unfettered authority in Belarus at present, is wary of power transition and other countries\u2019 examples must have discouraged him.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He does not see any potential successors and does not believe in verbal promises and constitutional guarantees. He is unlikely to give up power as long as he is fit to govern.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski The key lesson Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has learned from the Kazakhstan crisis is that he cannot trust anyone. He is likely to delay power transition indefinitely. Luka\u0161enka has always been reluctant to give more powers to anyone, including members of his ruling elite. He has blocked proposals for establishing a ruling party from […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11335","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka set to govern as long as fit | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski The key lesson Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has learned from the Kazakhstan crisis is that he cannot trust anyone. 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