{"id":11336,"date":"2022-01-19T21:24:36","date_gmt":"2022-01-19T18:24:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-unlikely-to-cancel-referendum-but-will-delay-power-transition\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-unlikely-to-cancel-referendum-but-will-delay-power-transition","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11336\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka unlikely to cancel referendum but will delay power transition"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Aliasandr Luka\u0161enka admitted at a conference with officials on January 18 that he did not need constitutional reform. But he is unlikely to call off a referendum scheduled for next month.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Preparations under way<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The promise of constitutional reform was Luka\u0161enka\u2019s pitch to angry voters during August 2020 post-election protests. The idea met with support from Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Now that public unrest has been suppressed he seems to have doubts. The recent violence in Kazakhstan has discouraged both Luka\u0161enka and Vladimir Putin against experimenting with authoritarian reforms. Luka\u0161enka must have persuaded or almost have persuaded Putin that he should not rush with power transition in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In other words, Luka\u0161enka does not want to change anything now. But he is unlikely to cancel the referendum for fear that his opponents might think that he is scared and undecided. In addition, he might have made some promises concerning constitutional reform to Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

Officials unlikely to rewrite the draft<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, authorities have been imitating public discussion of a draft constitution in the last three weeks. In fact, Luka\u0161enka alone decides on its content and could tell officials to rewrite it to prevent the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly from growing in stature at the expense of the presidency in order to mitigate risks incidental to the existence of two centers of power. If he did so, it would be unclear why the country has to change the constitution.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka is thinking about retirement despite his desire to stay in power as long as possible. He understands that he cannot last forever and he is not getting healthier and stronger.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He is unlikely to cancel the referendum or fundamentally change the draft. The assembly is likely to have its status considerably upgraded by assuming additional powers. It is seen as the key agency to maintain stability in transition.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The assembly must deter the president and all governmental agencies but it should not \u201cprevail over the president and its power,\u201d Luka\u0161enka told officials on January 18. He made it clear that he would be looking for a successor to continue his policy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The remarks should not be taken as his intention to leave office soon. Luka\u0161enka has always been very suspicious, and he is even more suspicious now as he sees Kassym-Jomart Tokayev remove his ex-patron Nursultan Nazarbayev from the political scene.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t After the new constitution is adopted, Luka\u0161enka is likely to take charge of the All-Belarusian People Assembly to make sure that both centers of power are under his control.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He may be hoping to hand over power to one of his sons, Viktar or Mikalaj, in a distant future to make succession as smooth as possible.\n<\/p>\n

Imitated discussion comes to an end<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t State media reported that Luka\u0161enka held the January 18 conference with officials to wrap up the \u201cpublic discussion,\u201d which lasted even less than three weeks, taking into account New Year\u2019s Day and Christmas.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Officials have met with factory workers and university students to promote the draft. Audiences did not ask sharp questions for fear of reprisals. Luka\u0161enka stalwarts expressed their support for the draft.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t According to one report, police investigators traveled to a remote village to discuss the draft with locals. There were reports of people dressed as Father Frost and Snow Maiden advertising the new constitution.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t At least one person was arrested after a public discussion over criticism. Mikalaj Vicika\u016d, a retiree, was given a two-month arrest sentence. Moreover, he may face up to five years in prison if convicted of \u201cstirring up hatred.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Ihar Siarhijenka, head of the Presidential Administration, said on January 18 that authorities have received mostly positive feedback from more than 7,000 people. Officials are set to edit more than 30 articles, he added. A finalized version is to be submitted to Luka\u0161enka within the next few days, he said.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka vying for legitimacy<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t \u201cWe have two options: either the people accept changes to the constitution and we will have a new constitution, or they reject these proposals and we will be left with the old constitution,\u201d Luka\u0161enka said on January 18.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although he has nothing to lose in any case, he hopes that the public will approve it. He would trumpet the approval as a sign of public support for his policy and proof of his legitimacy. Officials are likely to work hard to engineer the desired result, while security forces will not let critics raise their voices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliasandr Luka\u0161enka admitted at a conference with officials on January 18 that he did not need constitutional reform. But he is unlikely to call off a referendum scheduled for next month. Preparations under way The promise of constitutional reform was Luka\u0161enka\u2019s pitch to angry voters during August 2020 post-election protests. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11336","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka unlikely to cancel referendum but will delay power transition | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliasandr Luka\u0161enka admitted at a conference with officials on January 18 that he did not need constitutional reform. 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