{"id":11340,"date":"2022-01-26T15:36:26","date_gmt":"2022-01-26T12:36:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-has-stifled-political-activity-but-failed-to-resolve-internal-crisis-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-has-stifled-political-activity-but-failed-to-resolve-internal-crisis-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11340\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka has stifled political activity but failed to resolve internal crisis \u2013 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n A recent survey recorded a disappointing result for Belarus\u2019 opposition supporters. Fewer Belarusians trust Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office; fewer are willing to take part in protests; fewer support the opposition\u2019s demand for Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s resignation and the nationalist white-red-white flag, according to a November poll by Chatham House. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t Chatham House\u2019s Belarus Initiative interviewed Internet users living in Belarusian cities and towns. It noted that \u201cit is probable\u201d that nationwide support for Luka\u0161enka and his policy might be a little bit higher if rural residents were included in the sample.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Since up to 82 percent of Belarusians use the Internet, while rural residents accounted for 21.9 percent of the population in 2018, the survey results should reflect public sentiment quite accurately.\n<\/p>\n

Fewer voters support protests<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The pollster classified respondents into three categories: Luka\u0161enka\u2019s bastion (27 percent compared to 25 percent in April), neutrals (43 percent vs 40 percent in April) and the protest core (30 percent vs 34 percent in April).\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Protests have run out of steam this year amid an unprecedented government crackdown on dissent. Support for protests declined from 27 percent of respondents strongly in favor and 17 percent of respondents in favor of protests in September 2020 to 14 percent and 19 percent, respectively, in November 2021.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The proportion of those demanding a new fair election fell to 60 percent in November 2021 from 69 percent in September 2020. Support for demands for Luka\u0161enka\u2019s resignation declined from 53 percent to 44 percent and for the release of all political prisoners from 65 percent to 59 percent. Support for the historical white-red-white flag and Pahonia coat of arms dropped from 34 percent to 26 percent, while support for the official red-green flag and state symbol rose from 44 percent to 49 percent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The poll showed a decline in imprisoned politician Viktar Babaryka\u2019s favorability rating to 19 percent from 22 percent in July 2021, while Luka\u0161enka\u2019s rating stood at 27 percent. Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s and Paviel Latu\u0161ka\u2019s poll numbers linger at single digits.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Fewer Belarusians (25 percent) trusted Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office in November 2021. That was a decline from 34 percent in January 2021. Confidence in the independent media fell from 46 percent to 41 percent in the same period, but the percentage of those who distrusted the independent media also decreased from 32 percent to 24 percent.\n<\/p>\n

Few people trust government<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Trust in the government and news organizations under its control remained low.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Only 19 percent trusted state news organizations in November 2021. Trust in local authorities was 22 percent; in the central election commission, 16 percent; and in the president, 32 percent. However, 46 percent said they would not vote for Luka\u0161enka in a presidential election under any circumstances.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Pro-government politicians have low ratings and extremely high anti-ratings, noted Belarus Initiative.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka is the most recognizable politician, followed by Cichano\u016dskaja, Babaryka, Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski, Valieryj Capkala, Maryja Kaliesnikava and Latu\u0161ka.\n<\/p>\n

Voters losing interest in politics<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t \u201cDeliverables are most important in politics. The one who fails to deliver loses trust and rating,\u201d said Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, a Belarusian political analyst.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cYou cannot stay on top of the polls for long when you are in prison like Babaryka, without communication with voters,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although opposition politicians based abroad have been pro-active, they have failed to deliver a tangible result, so voters have somewhat cooled on the opposition and its symbols, Karbalievi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Compared to the 2020 post-election protests, Belarusians are less interested and involved in politics, he said, noting that Luka\u0161enka has tightened his grip on power and is unlikely to loosen it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t However, this is not a type of stability the Belarusian ruler enjoyed before his 2020 campaign, Karbalievi\u010d stressed. The political crisis has not been resolved as Luka\u0161enka remains the main source of tension in and around the country, he said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The decrease in trust for the opposition political forces is insignificant, within the margin of error (3.5 percent), said Andrej Kazakievi\u010d, director of the Political Sphere think tank. Some respondents might be simply afraid to give honest answers, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus Initiative admitted that fear might have had an effect on poll results, but said it was insignificant. The maximum distortion measured on certain questions did not exceed nine percent, the pollster said.\n<\/p>\n

Not a turnaround for Luka\u0161enka<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Although the poll registered a small decline in support for the opposition leaders, it has not showed a rise in conscious support for the authorities, Kazakievi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Despite Luka\u0161enka\u2019s effort to promote the red-green flag, 25 years after its adoption more than half of Belarusians do not consider it to be a symbol of their country, he noted.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cPeople have become passive because the price of action is too high,\u201d Kazakievi\u010d said. \u201cAuthorities have managed to stifle political activity but failed to turn things around strategically.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka postponed the next local and parliamentary election to 2024 for fear of social unrest. Belarus is supposed to hold the next presidential election in 2025, when his current term is running out.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is unclear whether the regime has enough resources to hang on in the face of economic stagnation and Western sanctions, and whether it can maneuver its way out of trouble in relations with Moscow, especially now that it has let itself get entangled in a major regional security crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN A recent survey recorded a disappointing result for Belarus\u2019 opposition supporters. Fewer Belarusians trust Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office; fewer are willing to take part in protests; fewer support the opposition\u2019s demand for Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s resignation and the nationalist white-red-white flag, according to a November poll by Chatham House. Chatham House\u2019s Belarus Initiative […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11340","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka has stifled political activity but failed to resolve internal crisis \u2013 analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN A recent survey recorded a disappointing result for Belarus\u2019 opposition supporters. 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