{"id":11347,"date":"2022-02-05T12:17:43","date_gmt":"2022-02-05T09:17:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/moscow-can-help-minsk-with-potash-transits-but-losses-concessions-are-unavoidable\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"moscow-can-help-minsk-with-potash-transits-but-losses-concessions-are-unavoidable","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11347\/","title":{"rendered":"Moscow can help Minsk with potash transits, but losses, concessions are unavoidable"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Minsk has failed so far to find an alternative route for exports of potash fertilizers despite the prime minister\u2019s optimistic remarks. It will be impossible to redirect all shipments from Klaipeda to Russia, Moscow\u2019s Kommersant said. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<h2> <span>Halo\u016d\u010danka is upbeat<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Lithuania\u2019s national rail operator halted transits of potash fertilizers from Belarus on February 1 amid Western sanctions against Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka\u2019s authoritarian regime. \u201cWe have been preparing for this situation for a long time and have redirected our shipments already,\u201d said Raman Halo\u016d\u010danka, Belarus\u2019 prime minister, on February 1. \u201cSince Russia\u2019s logistical route is longer, our producers have a bit smaller margins, but a rise in global prices will offset their losses.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t But Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, said the following day that work on redirecting shipments had not yet begun.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Moscow\u2019s Kommersant reported that Russian sea ports can only handle up to 3 million tons of transit cargos from Belarus, whereas Lithuania shipped about 11 million tons of potash via its Klaipeda port. The newspaper noted that Russian companies are reluctant to expose themselves to sanctions.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Kommersant said that its sources were unaware of any alternative routes or arrangements that had been tested already.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine seen as unlikely options<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Russia is likely to help Belarus with potash transits but would not make it public for fear of U.S. sanctions, said Kaciaryna Barnukova, of the Kyiv-based Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russia\u2019s Transneft denies that it supplies oil to the Naftan refinery in Navapolack, which is also targeted by sanctions, but oil keeps flowing to Naftan, she noted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In addition, Russia\u2019s is short of transshipment capacity, Barnukova said. \u201cThat is why, neither Uralkali nor EuroChem, which own terminals, are willing to share their capacities with Bielaruskali, a direct competitor,\u201d she told BPN.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus can hardly count on Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine for help because of current political tensions, but it can explore the Northern Sea Route running through Murmansk, Barnukova said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t She noted that the Kremlin can force Russian companies to share their transshipment terminals with Bielaruskali because the only alternative option for Vladimir Putin is to give Belarus additional subsidies.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Ty\u0161kievi\u010d: no good options for Minsk<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Russia\u2019s Uralchem could help Bielarukali meet its obligations to foreign customers and let the Belarusian company sell potash fertilizers in Russia, said Ihar Ty\u0161kievi\u010d, of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future. However, Bielaruskali would have to sell potash at Russia\u2019s domestic prices, which are considerably lower than the world price, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Bielaruskali could also establish a joint trading arm with a Russian company, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Bielaruskali and Russia\u2019s Uralkali had a joint trading entity called Belarusian Potash Company, but the two potash giants broke off ties in 2010 over a major dispute.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk may use front companies registered in European jurisdictions for dealings with Latvian ports, Ty\u0161kievi\u010d said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ukraine with its River Danube could be another possible route, but it is much longer and hardly negotiable because of political tensions.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>What Kremlin can ask in return<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Income from duty on potash exports accounted for 4.5 percent of Belarus\u2019 consolidated budget revenue in 2020. Sanctions may lead to pay and job cuts at Belarus\u2019 potash giant.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Bielaruskali is likely to find some transit routes, but surely these routes will not be enough to meet its export needs in full, Barnukova said. Although rising prices can partly offset export losses, Bielaruskali may also have to offer big discounts to lure customers who are wary of U.S. sanctions.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Obviously, Russia is likely to help, but it will expect major concessions from Luka\u0161enka in return for its assistance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Minsk has failed so far to find an alternative route for exports of potash fertilizers despite the prime minister\u2019s optimistic remarks. It will be impossible to redirect all shipments from Klaipeda to Russia, Moscow\u2019s Kommersant said. Halo\u016d\u010danka is upbeat Lithuania\u2019s national rail operator halted transits of potash fertilizers from Belarus on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11347","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Moscow can help Minsk with potash transits, but losses, concessions are unavoidable | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Minsk has failed so far to find an alternative route for exports of potash fertilizers despite the prime minister\u2019s\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11347\/\" \/>\n<meta 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