{"id":11348,"date":"2022-02-05T14:23:41","date_gmt":"2022-02-05T11:23:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/referendum-losing-battle-for-opponents-win-win-for-lukasenka\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"referendum-losing-battle-for-opponents-win-win-for-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11348\/","title":{"rendered":"Referendum: losing battle for opponents, win-win for Luka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka reassured foreign ambassadors on February 3 that Belarus\u2019 constitutional reform met all democratic standards despite international concern about his government\u2019s persistent attempts to silence its critics. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t Authorities have not admitted any opposition activists to territorial election commissions formed for the constitutional referendum coming up on February 27. Only 20 activists applied and had their applications rejected amid the continuing crackdown on dissent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Precinct commissions are likely to be free from opposition members. Authorities do not want any witnesses to be present during the vote count. Meanwhile, only 16 percent of Belarusians trust the central election commission, while 55 percent distrust it, according to a November survey by Chatham House.\n<\/p>\n

Ballot booths without curtains<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The central election commission has announced that ballot booths will be without curtains to ensure air circulation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Authorities hope that open booths will discourage voters from taking pictures of their ballots. Some opposition groups urged voters to spoil ballots by ticking both boxes and send pictures of the spoiled ballots to the Holas platform for an alternative vote count. Some opposition leaders suggested that opponents of the government should come to the polls at the same time to show their big numbers.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Observers note that any tactic is likely to fail because authorities are unlikely to count invalidated ballots for real or announce real results.\n<\/p>\n

Opponents have no good options<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Even if voters reject the draft constitution, Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka will be quite happy with the current basic law that gives him sweeping powers.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t During the 2020 presidential election, opponent had someone to fight for — Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja, whereas the referendum does not offer them any alternatives. Therefore, voters are unlikely to take risks because any manifestation of dissent may land them in prison.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka admitted that it would be a win-win referendum for him. He also said that his secret services can crack any opposition vote counting platform within an hour.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In another development, the central election commission has announced that it will not open polling stations at Belarusian diplomatic missions abroad, citing security and COVID-19 concerns among other reasons.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Therefore, Belarusians who fled their country for political reasons will not be able to vote.\n<\/p>\n

Protest campaigns likely to fail<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Chatham House estimates that supporters of anti-government protests account for 30 percent of Belarusians. Even if they tried to spoil ballots, their number may not be sufficient to invalidate more than half of the ballots.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Voters have been receiving mixed signals from the opposition camps. Some politicians said that voters should invalidate ballots, while others said that is not necessary. The Viktar Babaryka campaign has called on voters to come to the polls to \u201cexpress their opposition in any legal way and cheer each other with smiles.\u201d The campaign said that voters can also tick the \u201cNo\u201d box.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In the grand scheme of things, it does not matter what boxes you tick as long as election authorities remain loyal to Luka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

What percentage will commission announce?<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Rumors have been circulating that some officials had advised Luka\u0161enka to go for a victory with 60 percent of the vote before the 2020 presidential election. However, he was declared winner with 80.1 percent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Commentators note that the Belarusian ruler could have avoided mass protests if authorities had announced his victory by a smaller margin.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Officials may be discussing now what result authorities should declare in the referendum. Luka\u0161enka is likely to go for approval in the region of 80 percent because this is his favorite magic number. Obviously, few Belarusians will believe it.\n<\/p>\n

Legitimacy<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka sees the referendum as an opportunity to bolster his legitimacy. State propaganda will do its best to amplify his claim that most Belarusians have rallied behind him. However, society will remain polarized and the referendum cannot change it. Only 32 percent of Belarusians trust Luka\u0161enka, while 46% would never vote for him in a presidential election, according to Chatham House.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The West will not buy Minsk\u2019s claim that the vote is free and fair and that the government is willing to engage with the public. Luka\u0161enka is reluctant to engage with the West. Moreover, Luka\u0161enka made it crystal clear in his January 28 annual address that he will not release political prisoners.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka reassured foreign ambassadors on February 3 that Belarus\u2019 constitutional reform met all democratic standards despite international concern about his government\u2019s persistent attempts to silence its critics. Authorities have not admitted any opposition activists to territorial election commissions formed for the constitutional referendum coming up on February 27. Only 20 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11348","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nReferendum: losing battle for opponents, win-win for Luka\u0161enka | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka reassured foreign ambassadors on February 3 that Belarus\u2019 constitutional reform met all democratic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11348\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Referendum: losing battle for opponents, win-win for Luka\u0161enka | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By 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