{"id":11364,"date":"2022-02-26T03:16:17","date_gmt":"2022-02-26T00:16:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-drawn-into-kremlins-military-gamble\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-drawn-into-kremlins-military-gamble","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11364\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus drawn into Kremlin\u2019s military gamble"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n The Kremlin has been pulling Belarus deeper into the fray with Ukraine. What Moscow initially called a special operation in the Donbass region is a full-scale Russian invasion. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t Belarus will be targeted by new sanctions that can aggravate its internal political crisis.\n<\/p>\n

\u201cBy no means we should get into shit\u201d<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka claimed at his meeting with generals on February 24 that Belarusian troops were not involved in what he called Russia\u2019s operation in Ukraine, accusing Ukraine of spreading lies about Belarus\u2019 alleged role.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He claimed that Kyiv had been begging for war and said that Ukrainian politicians were insane. He claimed that the war broke out because a Ukrainian general was too lazy to call Moscow the day before. He also accused Ukraine of training saboteurs \u201cto fight here in Belarus against our people.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cWe are not going to be involved in the war in the first place. Second, no one has asked us for it, they can deal with it without us,\u201d he said. \u201cBy no means we should get into shit on the one hand, and to become traitors [on the other].\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He added that Minsk could host peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He said, however, that he would send troops to Ukraine \u201cif necessary for Belarus and Russia.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

Ukraine says Belarus is involved<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Ukraine said that some Russian troops had attacked it from Belarus. Luka\u0161enka admitted that Russian forces that had stayed in Belarus after holding joint maneuvers in mid-February were involved in the operation, and added that he learned about it from the media.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t That remark proves that he has ceded fundamental sovereignty over military affairs to Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The presence of Russian troops has considerably stretched Ukraine\u2019s defenses. Minsk has been helping Russia and acting against Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The European Union has already accused Belarus of complicity.\n<\/p>\n

Balancing act is over<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t In 2014 Luka\u0161enka distanced himself from the Russian aggressive policy toward Ukraine and managed to improve relations with the West. Belarus billed itself as a peace broker and a donor of regional security, and even proposed launching a new Helsinki process in Minsk.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t More recently Luka\u0161enka has been working in lockstep with the Kremlin as he desperately tries to cling to power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Kremlin took advantage of Belarus\u2019 2020 political crisis to solidify its influence on Luka\u0161enka after he smashed relations with the West into pieces and lost public support.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk may recognize Ukraine\u2019s breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People\u2019s Republic within days. The Kremlin may also force Minsk to contribute troops to its campaign.\n<\/p>\n

Cichano\u016dskaja trying to seize initiative<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka understands that Belarus\u2019 involvement in the war is a hard sell, no matter how state propaganda demonizes Ukraine. But he is eager to do the Kremlin a favor and hopes that he can deal with possible public discontent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Nearly 60 percent of Belarusians said in a recent Chatham House poll that Belarus\u2019 involvement in the war would be a catastrophe and suggested that Belarus should stay out. Only 13 percent said Belarus should send troops to help Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, angered by Luka\u0161enka\u2019s recent concessions to Moscow, opposition leader Sviatlana Cichano\u016dskaja said that she planned to establish a transition cabinet and act as \u201cthe representative of the Belarusian people and the guarantor of its rights and freedoms until the new election.\u201d Although mass anti-war demonstrations are unlikely in Belarus, public discontent with Luka\u0161enka is likely to grow.\n<\/p>\n

Minsk scrambling firmly into Russian orbit<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Both regimes have challenged the democratic world. Both will be tough on dissent, promote single-mindedness and treat criticism of the invasion as treason.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The chances that Minsk may engage with the West are remote. Putin has proved an even more irrational and reckless figure than people thought.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Putin\u2019s Russia emanates a big threat to Belarus. He sees it as a strategic outpost and wants to fully control it. Putin\u2019s speech on the recognition of Ukraine\u2019s breakaway territories showed his obsession with what he sees as historical injustice. He does not recognize post-Soviet borders and is ready to use force to conquer territories.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow is not impatient to absorb Belarus now because Luka\u0161enka complies with Putin\u2019s wishes. If pro-democratic and pro-European forces take the upper hand here, he will not hesitate to send troops to invade it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Kremlin has been pulling Belarus deeper into the fray with Ukraine. What Moscow initially called a special operation in the Donbass region is a full-scale Russian invasion. Belarus will be targeted by new sanctions that can aggravate its internal political crisis. \u201cBy no means we should get into shit\u201d Aliaksandr […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11364","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarus drawn into Kremlin\u2019s military gamble | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Kremlin has been pulling Belarus deeper into the fray with Ukraine. 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