{"id":11365,"date":"2022-03-01T15:38:16","date_gmt":"2022-03-01T12:38:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/minsk-assistance-to-russia-in-war-with-ukraine-is-fraught-with-negative-consequences\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"minsk-assistance-to-russia-in-war-with-ukraine-is-fraught-with-negative-consequences","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11365\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk assistance to Russia in war with Ukraine is fraught with negative consequences"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Belarus is Moscow\u2019s only ally as Russia uses its territory to attack Ukraine. Belarus and Russia have clashed with the rest of the world.&nbsp; <\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p> <b> <\/b><\/p>\n<p>\n\t Russian and Belarusian media mocked U.S. intelligence and President Joe Biden after a report on Russia\u2019s planned attack on Ukraine on February 16 did not come true.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov and other officials denied at the time that Russia planned to invade Ukraine. Moscow launched the offensive a week later, on February 24.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Putin cites historic insults as reason for invasion<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t In his speech concerning the recognition of Ukraine\u2019s breakaway territories, Vladimir Putin made appalling remarks about grounds for the invasion.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Whereas before he had blamed tension primarily on evil aggressive plans of NATO, the United States and the European Union against Russia, in his February 21 speech he acknowledged that Russia\u2019s main purpose was to take back the territories that allegedly belonged to it before the break-up of the Soviet Union.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t In fact, he challenged the borders that were established in 1991 after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Putin claimed to have historical, moral and political rights to revise the results of what he repeatedly described as \u201ca geopolitical catastrophe.\u201d His fundamental revisionism has undermined the international security architecture and security of all former Soviet republics.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin, a mentally deranged person at the helm of a nuclear superpower, poses an enormous threat to global civilization.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Belarus like Russia\u2019s thoroughfare<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka repeatedly said that he would not allow anyone to threaten Ukraine from the Belarusian territory and that Belarus would not participate in a war unless it came under attack. In his address to the military brass on February 22, he said, \u201cMark my word, the power and I as the president will do everything so that Belarus will be a peaceful islet on this crazy planet.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Ironically, the draft new constitution that is likely to be adopted as a result of February 27 referendum contains the following clause, \u201cThe Republic of Belarus rules out military aggression from its territory against other states.\u201d&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka admitted that Russian troops that stayed in Belarus after mid-February joint maneuvers were involved in Russia\u2019s military campaign against Ukraine. He added that he had learned about it from the media.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t It seems that Russian generals do not ask him for permission to use Belarus as the staging ground for attacks and do not even inform him about it.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t A 1974 UN document provides that letting another country to use a territory for aggression against a third country is an act of aggression in itself.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Luka\u0161enka hoped to benefit from tension<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Before Russia attacked Ukraine, Luka\u0161enka was even more aggressive than Moscow in his rhetorical attacks on the West and Ukraine. While Putin cynically referred to his opponents as \u201cour Western partners,\u201d Luka\u0161enka labeled Western politicians \u201cvillains.\u201d&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka also considerably contributed to tension between Russia and the West by forcing a passenger plane to land in Minsk and by creating the migrant crisis on the EU border. He said it was his idea to organize joint Belarusian-Russian military maneuvers in southern Belarus.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t His political calculus was to get as much as possible from Putin in return for his ostentatious display of loyalty, and also he sought to retaliate against the West for denying him recognition.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He appeared to be interested in tension but not in a war with Ukraine because its consequences were unpredictable.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Belarusian regime unlikely to benefit from the war<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine and the use of Belarusian territory by Russian troops have created multiple problems for Luka\u0161enka.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t 1. Polls show that most Belarusians, including his supporters, denounce Russia\u2019s war with Ukraine.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t 2. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine is a long-term threat to Belarus\u2019 independence. Putin does not recognize the break-up of the Soviet Union. Russian politicians say that Belarus\u2019 independence was a mistake. Luka\u0161enka often says that the Belarusians and Russians are one people. It now seems easy for Putin to incorporate Belarus into Russia.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t 3. Although Luka\u0161enka may be reluctant to send Belarusian troops to Ukraine, Belarus is seen as the only ally of the aggressor. Russia uses the Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine. Belarus and Russia have clashed with the rest of the world. Belarus\u2019 reputation is in tatters.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t 4. The Russian military build-up in Belarus proves that Luka\u0161enka is no longer in control of the country, which he considered his property for nearly three decades and until recently.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t 5. The war makes it virtually impossible for Luka\u0161enka to manipulate tension between Russia and the West in his favor. He may be forced to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People\u2019s Republics as independent states. The republics may apply for membership of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria can follow suit. The Union State will no longer be an exclusive club that Minsk established to exact concessions and subsidies from Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka has become Putin\u2019s puppet. He cannot be happy about it at the end of his political career.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t 6. A real conflict with Ukraine is fraught with heavy economic losses for Belarus, which used to enjoy a trade surplus of $4.5 billion. If trade is suspended, the impact will be greater than Western sanctions.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t 7. The United States and UK have imposed new sanctions on Belarus for its involvement in Russia\u2019s attack on Ukraine. The EU is likely to approve some measures too. In addition, the West\u2019s sanctions against Russia have hit Belarus hard.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t 8. The war has created economic problems. The Belarusian currency has depreciated. More serious problems are likely to come.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Meanwhile, Luka\u0161enka pretends that nothing happens in Belarus and he has nothing to do with the war.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN Belarus is Moscow\u2019s only ally as Russia uses its territory to attack Ukraine. Belarus and Russia have clashed with the rest of the world.&nbsp; Russian and Belarusian media mocked U.S. intelligence and President Joe Biden after a report on Russia\u2019s planned attack on Ukraine on February 16 did not come true.&nbsp; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11365","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Minsk assistance to Russia in war with Ukraine is fraught with negative consequences | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN Belarus is Moscow\u2019s only ally as Russia uses its territory to attack Ukraine. 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