{"id":11368,"date":"2022-03-05T00:51:24","date_gmt":"2022-03-04T21:51:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-trying-to-avoid-sending-troops-to-ukraine-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-trying-to-avoid-sending-troops-to-ukraine-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11368\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka trying to avoid sending troops to Ukraine \u2013 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n The international democratic community sees the Belarusian regime as Russia\u2019s ally in its war against Ukraine. Russian troops attacked Ukraine and fired missiles from the Belarusian territory. However, Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka seems to be trying to avoid sending Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cWe don\u2019t want any scandals, conflicts and wars. We are peaceful people. We would like to have peace around us,\u201d the Belarusian ruler told newly promoted generals at a ceremony in Minsk on March 3.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In an apparent reference to the West, he noted, \u201cThey are pushing Belarus in this war in Ukraine and doing it deliberately,\u201d according to his press office.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He added that his foes want Belarus \u201cto expose our remaining border. And afterward they would deal with us quickly. We would never get a chance to come back from Ukraine to protect you [the people]. This is their tactic. The strategy is to deal with Russia and us while they are at it, so that they will not have to start it all over again like in August 2020.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka has always said that the 2020 post-election protests were part of the West\u2019s plot against Belarus and Russia. He has denied vote rigging and cast himself as Russia\u2019s defender fighting on the frontline.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But he seems to be trying to avoid Belarusian troops\u2019 involvement in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine on the battlefield. \u201cBy no means we should get into shit, on the one side, or become traitors [on the other],\u201d he told the military brass a few days ago.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka cannot count even on his supporters<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Although Luka\u0161enka seems reluctant to send Belarusian troops to Ukraine, he may do so under pressure from Moscow, said Arciom \u0160rajbman, a Belarusian political analyst.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A February poll by Chatham House found that 56 percent of Belarusians living in cities and towns wanted their country to stay neutral, while 57 percent said participation in the war would be a disaster for Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Only 12 percent said that Belarus should send contract soldiers to Ukraine. The percentage is much lower than support for Luka\u0161enka estimated at approximately 30 percent. Five percent said Belarus should also send draftees to fight in Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka cannot even count on the backing of his supporters should he decide to send troops to Ukraine, \u0160rajbman told BPN. With reports coming in on deaths and destruction, support for the war should be even lower now, he added.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although Moscow may try to force Luka\u0161enka to step into the fray, it does not have effective tools of influence, he went on to say. If Moscow rejects Minsk\u2019s request for a new loan \u201cthis is peanuts compared to losses that the war can cause to the economy,\u201d he said. Russian forces can ill-afford to be distracted now to remove Luka\u0161enka from office, while Putin is not ready to lose Belarus as Russia\u2019s only ally in this war, he noted.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka will be trying to convince Putin that Belarus should be a place for negotiations and that it should stay out of fighting, \u0160rajbman said.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The West will speak with Luka\u0161enka to avoid a major security crisis in the region, he went on to say. But Minsk is unlikely to mend fences the West without making big political concessions, for instance without releasing political prisoners.\n<\/p>\n

Belarus may face economic decline<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t \u201cI can hardly imagine a situation where Luka\u0161enka can defy Putin\u2019s order to send troops [to Ukraine],\u201d said Paviel Macukievi\u010d, a former Belarusian diplomat.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cIt looks like the question of Belarus\u2019 independence is no longer on the agenda. Russian troops, by all appearances, are not going to leave,\u201d said Macukievi\u010d, of the Center of New Ideas think tank.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He noted that Western sanctions against Russia make it impossible for Minsk to bypass restrictive measures that have been imposed on Belarus, adding that the country may experience a severe economic decline and may eventually have to adopt the Russian ruble.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0160rajbman, on the other hand, said that Belarus can emerge from the crisis with a new government because the sanctions and war have undermined Russia\u2019s ability to support Luka\u0161enka. \u201cIn case of perturbations in Moscow, developments may follow the scenario of the late 1980s, when the weakening of the parent state led to the withdrawal of its satellites,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The international democratic community sees the Belarusian regime as Russia\u2019s ally in its war against Ukraine. Russian troops attacked Ukraine and fired missiles from the Belarusian territory. However, Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka seems to be trying to avoid sending Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine. \u201cWe don\u2019t want any scandals, conflicts and wars. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11368","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka trying to avoid sending troops to Ukraine \u2013 analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The international democratic community sees the Belarusian regime as Russia\u2019s ally in its war against Ukraine. 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