{"id":11371,"date":"2022-03-07T18:08:54","date_gmt":"2022-03-07T15:08:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/war-in-ukraine-sends-shocks-across-belarus\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"war-in-ukraine-sends-shocks-across-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11371\/","title":{"rendered":"War in Ukraine sends shocks across Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine has triggered several crises in Belarus that will have long-term repercussions. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

\n Unexpected anti-war demonstrations on referendum day <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\n\t Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka held a referendum on February 27 to obtain public approval for a new constitution. It does not make sense to analyze the referendum\u2019s official result because the vote was non-transparent and not free. It definitely does not reflect the real picture.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The vote was conducted without local and international observers being present but amid the heavy presence of Russian troops in the country. The government did not open polling stations abroad and did not disclose the names of election commissioners. In the run-up to the plebiscite, officials did their best to silence critics during the tightly-choreographed public discussions of the draft.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Authorities deployed police, 5,000 rescue workers and retired security officers to maintain security during the vote. Still, hundreds of voters in Minsk and other cities staged anti-war rallies. Police arrested 908 participants; 589 demonstrators were given jail terms, according to human rights defenders.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The referendum was not of much significance for Luka\u0161enka, not even as a way to stake out a new claim to legitimacy. The West is unlikely to recognize it, while Russia is likely to recognize it regardless of conduct.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As for legitimacy in the eyes of Belarusians, the government considers its supporters who constitute a minority as the general public, and ignores the rest. Obviously, the Luka\u0161enka supporters have accepted its results.\n<\/p>\n

Public concerns<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka is aware of the public disapproval of Belarus\u2019 involvement in the war. He seems to be leaning toward not sending Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine. Whereas on February 24 he indicated that Belarus might contribute forces to Russia\u2019s operation, a few days later he said that \u201cthe Belarusian army has not been involved and does not intend to be involved.\u201d \u201cI have no need or desire to send them [troops] somewhere to some war.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t At the beginning of the campaign, Luka\u0161enka appeared to hope that Ukraine would surrender in a matter of days. He told Russian journalist Vladimir Solovyev in early February that the war would take three to four days. He probably considered contributing forces to the operation in hope for easy benefits. But since the fighting is likely to last, he might eventually decide to back out. He has been trying to benefit as much as possible from talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Belarus, including in an effort to improve his country\u2019s reputation. Belarus is widely seen as the aggressor\u2019s ally.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Not surprisingly, Luka\u0161enka talked a lot about his role in organizing the talks at a conference with officials on March 1.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Western sanctions against Russia might have made an impact. He probably worries that Moscow would not be able to provide as much support for his regime as he expected and already sees Russia as a source of problems for Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, he accused the West of allegedly encouraging Belarus to take part in the war in Ukraine. \u201cThey are pushing Belarus into this war in Ukraine and doing it deliberately,\u201d he told officials on March 1. He added that his foes wanted Belarus \u201cto expose our remaining border. And afterward they would deal with us quickly. We would never get a chance to come back from Ukraine to protect you [the people]. This is their tactic. The strategy is to deal with Russia and us while they are at it, so that they will not have to start it all over again like in August 2020.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Three days later, he said, \u201cThey are pushing us into the war in Ukraine. If we got embroiled in the conflict, in which no one is waiting for us, it would be a present for them.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

Some officials seem to be in doubt<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The war will have a tremendous economic impact on Belarus that will be similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Western sanctions will play a secondary role in it. Most of the damage is likely to come from Western companies\u2019 decisions to pull out of Belarus and Russia. Economists estimate that Belarus\u2019 economy may contract by 10 percent. Rubel depreciation was just the first sign of economic turbulence as clouds continue to darken.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moreover, the public and foreign entities do not trust the government and Luka\u0161enka. Some officials also seem to have doubts.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On March 1, state television stations broadcast footage of Luka\u0161enka standing in front of a map of Ukraine trying to explain away the attack on Ukraine and the presence of Russian troops in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Three days later, he complained that officials did not believe him. \u201cI making a compelling case here, hopefully for the last time. You know, it sometimes even hurts a bit that I have to repeat and convince you day after day . . . You know, if you don\u2019t hear me, it is time you elect a new president . . . You should understand that today, when we have found ourselves under an unprecedented attack involving sanctions, provocations and information manipulations, the country needs your understanding, trust, support and composure more than ever . . . You should understand . . . Don\u2019t you understand . . .\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t With more economic shocks coming, officials are likely to have more questions to ask of Luka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine has triggered several crises in Belarus that will have long-term repercussions. Unexpected anti-war demonstrations on referendum day Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka held a referendum on February 27 to obtain public approval for a new constitution. It does not make sense to analyze the referendum\u2019s official result because the vote […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11371","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWar in Ukraine sends shocks across Belarus | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d, BPN Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine has triggered several crises in Belarus that will have long-term repercussions. 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