{"id":11380,"date":"2022-03-20T12:12:05","date_gmt":"2022-03-20T09:12:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-to-face-severe-economic-consequences-for-its-involvement-in-russias-invasion-of-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-to-face-severe-economic-consequences-for-its-involvement-in-russias-invasion-of-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11380\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus to face severe economic consequences for its involvement in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Vo\u013aha Byko\u016dskaja, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>International sanctions against Belarus as a co-aggressor in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine are expected to trigger rubel depreciation and a rise in unemployment, reduce export revenue, slow economic growth and complicate foreign debt repayment. Restrictions may be tightened if Belarusian troops enter Ukraine.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The top three agencies have downgraded Belarus\u2019 ratings after Russia attacked Ukraine. Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka has authorized the finance ministry to use Belarusian rubels for settling foreign-currency obligations.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Iosub: exports, revenue to shrink, lay-offs highly probable<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThe sanctions may lead on an economic collapse,\u201d said Vadzim Iosub, an Alpari Eurasia senior analyst. He noted that economic measures have made an immediate impact: the Russian currency has weakened considerably. The Belarusian rubel is still relatively strong. \u201cThe cost of the foreign currency basket remains unaffected: the rise of the dollar and euro has been offset by a fall in the value of the Russian ruble,\u201d he told BPN.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The most severe sanctions \u2013 a ban on supply of euro notes and a freeze of the National Bank\u2019s euro assets \u2013 have come from the European Union, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The United States may soon announce similar measures. The other G-7 countries are likely to follow suit. The central bank may have all of its foreign exchange reserves frozen, except for the yuan, Iosub said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk will not be able to repay its debts denominated in foreign currencies and conduct foreign currency interventions on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Banks may stop selling foreign cash, while Belarusians will not be able to withdraw some of their savings in foreign currency, he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Sectoral restrictions targeting refineries, petrochemical, wood, steel and other companies will have a long-term impact, Iosub said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Western companies have withdrawn from Russia\u2019s toxic market. Belarus may be less affected. \u201cFirst off, Western businesses were not heavily present here, but many of those who were have announced withdrawal. Some companies have pulled out of both Russia and Belarus,\u201d he said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t He expects exports and foreign currency revenues to decrease, while imports will be also restricted.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t \u201cThe ban on imports, especially on technologies, intermediary goods, raw and other materials, may paralyze the economy,\u201d he said. \u201cWe don\u2019t have any industries independent of imports. To sow wheat, farms need imported non-organic fertilizers. Belarusian textile companies need imported dyes and yarn. Some companies will have to suspend operations, while others will have to cut production. The lucky workers will have their wages cut, the unlucky ones will lose their jobs and salaries.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Economy may contract by up to 30 percent<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t \u201cWe are dealing with unprecedented sanctions,\u201d Iosub said. \u201cNo country has been targeted on such a scale and in such a short period. The Iran sanctions, for instance, hit only one currency, the dollar, and oil trade and were introduced gradually.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk can do nothing to reverse the sanctions. \u201cTheoretically, it could withdraw from the alliance with Russia and stop its involvement in the war. But the probability of it seems extremely remote. There are no other viable options,\u201d Iosub said.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus may miss out on $1.5 billion in revenue annually due to restricted access to Ukraine, even if it redirects exports, said Iryna Juzvak, director of InComeln, a think tank, in a Facebook post.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Belarus supplied Ukraine with petroleum products, fertilizers, vehicles, plastic goods, polymer materials and wood products, she added.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The war will have catastrophic consequences for Belarus, said Uladzimir Kavalkin, of the Ko\u0161t Urada [Cost of Government] think tank. It may shave off 20 to 30 percent of its gross domestic product, he added.\n<\/p>\n<p>Minsk said that Moscow had<br \/>\npromised during top-level talks last week \u201cunprecedented measures\u201d to support<br \/>\nthe Belarusian economy. Russian aid can only partially offset Belarus\u2019 losses,<br \/>\neconomists say.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Vo\u013aha Byko\u016dskaja, BPN International sanctions against Belarus as a co-aggressor in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine are expected to trigger rubel depreciation and a rise in unemployment, reduce export revenue, slow economic growth and complicate foreign debt repayment. Restrictions may be tightened if Belarusian troops enter Ukraine. The top three agencies have downgraded Belarus\u2019 ratings [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11380","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarus to face severe economic consequences for its involvement in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Vo\u013aha Byko\u016dskaja, BPN International sanctions against Belarus as a co-aggressor in Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine are expected to trigger rubel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11380\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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