{"id":11385,"date":"2022-03-27T14:21:27","date_gmt":"2022-03-27T11:21:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/as-war-drags-on-more-factors-to-work-against-putin-lukasenka-regimes\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"as-war-drags-on-more-factors-to-work-against-putin-lukasenka-regimes","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11385\/","title":{"rendered":"As war drags on, more factors to work against Putin, Luka\u0161enka regimes"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n Wars involving superpowers or coalitions have always reshaped the world\u2019s political map and led to the establishment of new systems of security and international relations. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine will make a serious impact on Belarus\u2019 future. <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t The world will change, but it will not change according to Vladimir Putin\u2019s plans. The Belarusian regime has little or no influence on developments.\n<\/p>\n

World will not be the same<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t 1. Quite unexpectedly, Samuel Huntington was right in his conclusion that the Cold War is likely to be followed by a clash of civilizations. Russia and Ukraine are part of one civilization. But Russia officially interprets the war as its standoff with the West, which seeks to pull Ukraine out of \u201cthe Russian world\u201d and integrate it in Western alliances, such as NATO and the European Union.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The current conflict is not between the Christians and Muslims, or the West and Islamic terrorists. The clash within the Christian world is a new phenomenon after the Cold War.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 2. Nuclear powers have regarded nuclear warheads as a deterrent until recently. Putin\u2019s threats to resort to nuclear missiles have lowered the nuclear threshold significantly, taking the world a step closer to a nuclear conflict.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The war has dealt another blow to the nuclear non-proliferation regime. If Ukraine had a nuclear deterrent, the Kremlin would think twice before launching what it called special operation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 3. The war \u2013 as a way of solving political problems \u2013 came as a shock in the 21st<\/sup> century because it conflicts with values of consumer society. Russia\u2019s initial plans failed because Russian troops\u2019 low morale. One thing is to publish fake surveys to support the \u201cspecial operation\u201d and another thing is to lose one\u2019s life for unclear goals. Liberal values have taken root in Russia and in Belarus to a greater extent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 4. Democracies see Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine as a war against Western civilization. The invasion was as shocking as the 9\/11 terrorist attack on the United States. That is why the West reacted promptly, often without following usual bureaucratic and legal procedures. Companies imposed sanctions of their own that hit Russia and Belarus hard.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t No divisions have been observed within the West and within Western countries. The war shut up European politicians who supported Putin and profited from dealings with Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 5. Experts criticized the West for a lack of dominance, resolve and initiative and its inability to harmonize divergent interests. The collective West has shown its power and consolidation in response to the existential challenge from Russia. The crisis may give an impetus to Western civilization renaissance.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 6. The West has used its economic power, the best tool in its locker. If it delivers on its promise to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, its mission of Russia\u2019s economic isolation will be accomplished. Economic power plays crucial role in the modern world.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Belarusian regime\u2019s pivot to Russia, an underdeveloped economy and political gambler, was a miscalculation.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 7. More advanced countries involved in globalization are more vulnerable to economic sanctions. North Korea is more resilient in this regard. A greater part of Russia lives in the industrial age and does not use the benefits of civilization. That helps it mitigate the immediate effect of sanctions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 8. China can benefit from the war, which distracts Washington from Asia. Chinese companies are likely to expand into the Russian market abandoned by Western businesses. Russia will be increasingly dependent on China.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the other hand, China seems unwilling to provide much economic support for the Belarusian regime because its hostility with the West was a setback for its Belt and Road plans.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 9. Russia has proved that public opinion manipulations are still possible in the Internet age. Minsk\u2019s follows the same path but faces a more daunting task.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 10. One month of Russia\u2019s campaign has exposed its military weaknesses. Its military power was definitely exaggerated. However hard Moscow tries to paper over the cracks, others will not fear of Russia as much as before. Russia\u2019s main threat is its nuclear arsenal.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka has backed the losing side.\n<\/p>\n

War changes Belarusian society<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\tThe war has polarized Belarusian society. It is the third instance of extreme polarization observed in the last eight years after Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the 2020 post-election protests. Belarus has entered another turbulent period, while its people are closely watching political developments.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A poll conducted by Chatham House earlier this month suggests that some of the Luka\u0161enka opponents, who have outnumbered his supporters in the last few years, back Putin. More Belarusians sided with Russia (33 percent) than with Ukraine (20 percent).\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But support for Russia is not as overwhelming as was Belarusians\u2019 approval of the annexation of Crimea (two thirds). There has been a major shift in public sentiment in the last eight years.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t That change has mitigated polarization and is indicative of the emergence of some transitional groups.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t On the one hand, the opposition base has shrunk because the Russia supporters cannot be counted in, while on the other public support for Luka\u0161enka is likely to fade amid imminent economic hardship. No matter how hard the state-controlled media are trying to shift the blame to the West, deepening economic pessimism will push down Luka\u0161enka\u2019s approval ratings.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t As the war drags on, all factors that work against the Putin regime will drag down the Luka\u0161enka regime. Public winds will be shifting against him. The war has created a momentum that will accelerate socioeconomic processes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d Wars involving superpowers or coalitions have always reshaped the world\u2019s political map and led to the establishment of new systems of security and international relations. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine will make a serious impact on Belarus\u2019 future. The world will change, but it will not change according to Vladimir Putin\u2019s plans. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11385","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAs war drags on, more factors to work against Putin, Luka\u0161enka regimes | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Valieryj Karbalievi\u010d Wars involving superpowers or coalitions have always reshaped the world\u2019s political map and led to the establishment of new\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11385\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"As war drags on, more factors to work against Putin, Luka\u0161enka regimes | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By 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