{"id":11388,"date":"2022-03-31T11:49:26","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T08:49:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarusian-troops-deployment-to-ukraine-less-likely-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarusian-troops-deployment-to-ukraine-less-likely-analysis","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11388\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian troops deployment to Ukraine less likely \u2013 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span><span style=\"color: #212529\">By<\/span><\/span><span><span style=\"color: #212529\"> <\/span><\/span><span><span style=\"color: #212529\">Aliaksandr<\/span><\/span><span><span style=\"color: #212529\"> <\/span><\/span><span><span style=\"color: #212529\">Klasko\u016dski<\/span><\/span><span><span style=\"color: #212529\">, <\/span><\/span><span><span style=\"color: #212529\">BPN<\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <b><span style=\"color: #212529\">The Kremlin has given up on initial goals of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and seems willing to reach a compromise with Kyiv. Recent developments make the deployment of Belarusian troops to Ukraine less likely, observers say. <\/span><\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"background: white\"> <span><span style=\"color: #212529\">Parotnika\u016d: Moscow expecting Minsk to cover its back<\/span><\/span> <\/h4>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">\u201cThere is no evidence that the Russians have ever brought up the issue of Belarusian troops deployment to Ukraine,\u201d said Andrej Parotnika\u016d, of Belarus Security Blog. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">After Moscow said it would scale down military operations in Chernihiv and Kyiv to \u201cincrease mutual trust,\u201d the Belarusian army\u2019s entry into Ukraine is less probable, he told The Viewer. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">Moscow expects Minsk to provide logistics support for its forces, he added.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">However, Arciom \u0160rajbman, a Belarusian analyst, warned that it is too early to make any conclusions because Russia can change its plans. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">Statements by Kyiv that it sees signs of preparations for Belarusian troops deployment are an element of information warfare. \u201cThat makes Minsk offer explanations and excuses,\u201d Parotnika\u016d said. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"background: white\"> <span><span style=\"color: #212529\">Can Luka\u0161enka steer clear of trouble?<\/span><\/span> <\/h4>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">The Luka\u0161enka regime is a co-aggressor, but it is not involved in the Russian-Ukrainian talks, Parotnika\u016d noted. If Russia retreats and strikes a deal with Ukraine, Belarus may remain in state of war with Ukraine, he said. Kyiv and the international community will have tough questions to ask of Minsk, he added. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">Luka\u0161enka could try to maneuver his way out of trouble by reaching out to the West, but the latter is expecting an official statement from Minsk to demand that Russian troops leave Belarus, Parotnika\u016d said. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">As long as the war continues, Luka\u0161enka does not have room for maneuver, he went on to say. But if Russia suffers a defeat or weakens considerably, the Belarusian ruler may be offered a deal to reduce his dependence on the Kremlin, he said. The West will insist on progress toward democracy and the handover of power against personal security guarantees for Luka\u0161enka and his cronies, he said. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">The Belarusian ruler can accept that deal \u201cto accomplish his supermission of preserving the state that he thinks he created,\u201d Parotnika\u016d said. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"background: white\"> <span><span style=\"color: #212529\">Luka\u0161enka not independent as long as Russian troops are staying in Belarus<\/span><\/span> <\/h4>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">\u0160rajbman agreed that Luka\u0161enka may have room for maneuver after Russia withdraws its troops from Belarus. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">\u201cAs long as they are staying here, Luka\u0161enka will find it difficult to convince someone that has a degree of independence and that he is willing to perform a balancing act,\u201d he told The Viewer. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">If he forces Moscow to withdraw troops from Belarus or reduce Russia\u2019s military presence there, Minsk has a chance of making the West interested in engagement. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">\u201cPossibly, some Western countries will be willing to invest in driving a wedge between Luka\u0161enka and Putin,\u201d \u0160rajbman said.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">The price of engagement will be high for the Belarusian ruler because the West does not consider him a legitimate president and demands the release of over a thousand of political prisoners, he said. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">Since it is critically important for Luka\u0161enka to persuade the West to lift an embargo on potash fertilizer, wood and petroleum exports, he may release political prisoners, \u0160rajbman said. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: white\">\n <span style=\"color: #212529\">\u201cBut we are far from that point. Many things that do not depend on Luka\u0161enka have yet to happen, in particular the withdrawal of Russian troops,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Kremlin has given up on initial goals of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and seems willing to reach a compromise with Kyiv. Recent developments make the deployment of Belarusian troops to Ukraine less likely, observers say. Parotnika\u016d: Moscow expecting Minsk to cover its back \u201cThere is no evidence that the Russians [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11388","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarusian troops deployment to Ukraine less likely \u2013 analysis | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN The Kremlin has given up on initial goals of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and seems willing to reach a compromise with Kyiv.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11388\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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