{"id":113887,"date":"2024-11-15T10:41:46","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T07:41:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/113887\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-sees-aliyev-as-his-role-model","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/113887\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka sees Aliyev as his role model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

At this week’s climate summit in Baku, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka met with his long-time friend, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who had recently secured a new seven-year term with 92.12 percent of the vote, following his victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. \u0141uka\u0161enka, preparing for the January 21-26 election, continues his contentious relationship with the opposition, inadvertently highlighting the flaws in his system as he seeks to prove his legitimacy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka and Ilham Aliyev in Baku on November 11\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Website of the president of Azerbaijan)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka struggles for legitimacy ahead of January election<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

OSCE observers have criticized Aliyev’s February election, noting it took place amid repression of critical voices and a lack of political pluralism. Nevertheless, Aliyev\u2019s popularity has increased after his success in Nagorno-Karabakh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, \u0141uka\u0161enka faced massive protests in 2020, which led him to promise an early election and a transfer of power. He even suggested he would not seek re-election under a new constitution. However, after overcoming significant opposition, he decided to run for a seventh term\u2014effectively staging another \u201csingle-choice election,\u201d as opposition leaders have called it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the exiled opposition has limited options, \u0141uka\u0161enka is aware that his domestic opponents, though repressed, have not accepted his rule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic growth is helping bolster his position ahead of the election, despite the economy overheating due to artificially inflated wages and welfare payments. Furthermore, some voters are drawn to his image as a “wise ruler” who is purportedly saving the country from war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, critics remain skeptical of the latest poll from the pro-government EcooM center, which claims that 80.4 percent of Belarusians trust \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end of 2021, sociologist Hienad\u017a Kor\u0161una\u016d told Pozirk<\/em> that, according to independent surveys, only about a third of Belarusians trusted \u0141uka\u0161enka, while 50-55 percent did not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka unlikely to outmatch Putin\u2019s 87 percent<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Propagandists have been quick to predict \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s victory, with forecasts suggesting he will secure more than 90 percent of the vote. Of course, the central election commission can announce whatever result \u0141uka\u0161enka desires, but surpassing Putin’s recent result of 87.28 percent could provoke a negative reaction from the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike \u0141uka\u0161enka, Putin\u2019s popularity has surged due to nationalist sentiment and generous payments to soldiers and workers in the military-industrial complex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a result of less than 80 percent would be problematic for \u0141uka\u0161enka. This threshold holds symbolic value for him, and to “turn the page,” he needs at least as much as he claimed to have won in 2020 (80.1 percent).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, the final tally is likely to exceed 80 percent but fall short of Putin’s score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is unlikely to request a lower percentage in an effort to smooth over rifts with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The struggles of Belarus without oil<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Several factors likely contribute to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s envy of Aliyev. Azerbaijan\u2019s large oil reserves support its economy and play a crucial role in building international relations. Oil and gas provide Azerbaijan, despite being a dictatorship, additional diplomatic leverage, particularly in its dealings with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, Azerbaijan has ramped up gas production, positioning itself as a key supplier to Europe, especially amid growing tensions between the EU and Russia. Azerbaijan plans to export 25 billion cubic meters of gas in 2024, much of it will go to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, Minsk is dependent on cheap Russian gas, which Moscow uses to maintain Belarus’ alignment with Russia. Oil and gas have granted Baku a significant degree of independence, while \u0141uka\u0161enka has been forced to rely on the Kremlin, enduring Western sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has expressed envy of petrocracies, as evidenced by his remarks that Belarus could have thrived if it produced 8-9 million tons of oil annually. Last year, the country extracted less than 1.9 million tons, which was still a 28-year record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a government conference in March, \u0141uka\u0161enka said he was convinced Belarus had untapped oil reserves. \u201cThey tell me they\u2019ve pumped out everything. I\u2019m not convinced. . . I say it again, look for what the country needs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite efforts by geologists, no new oil deposits have been found. Belarus has vast potash reserves, but Western sanctions severely restrict exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Azerbaijan\u2019s dynasty<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Another aspect of Azerbaijan\u2019s system that \u0141uka\u0161enka likely envies is its model of dynastic power transfer. The Aliyev family has been in charge since the Soviet era, ensuring a clear line of succession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2003, Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev, a KGB veteran in failing health, handed over power to his son Ilham. Ilham, in turn, appointed his wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, as first vice president, ensuring an automatic transfer of power to her in an emergency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Ilham\u2019s son, Heydar Aliyev Jr. (27), has begun participating in official government events and is widely seen as being groomed to succeed his father. Additionally, in 2017, Azerbaijan abolished the age limit for presidential candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has three sons, but the prospects for a smooth transfer of power to one of them seem uncertain. He appears to entertain the idea of a monarchy-like succession, hoping that the public, cowed by his totalitarian methods, will not resist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka holds a clear lead over Ilham Aliyev in terms of political prisoners. As of November 12, Belarus has 1,279 documented political prisoners, compared to 319 in Azerbaijan as of September 23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian population has not become more loyal following the 2020 crackdown. \u0141uka\u0161enka continually reminds his officials that his enemies are still active, and many opponents have not yet left the country. The events of 2020 are still fresh in his mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prospects of a family succession<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has always been distrustful, and the most reliable option for him appears to be transferring power through inheritance. He likely doubts the ability of his eldest son, Viktar, to manage the government, and keeps him in the political shadows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The middle son, D\u017amitryj, shows little interest in politics, while Mika\u0142aj is still too young.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka considers himself exceptional and is reluctant to relinquish power. If his successor fails to hold on to it, \u0141uka\u0161enka fears retribution after his retirement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, he clings to the \u201cMust Run\u201d mantra, hoping to galvanize his supporters. There are no signs of an impending transfer of power in Belarus, so it seems likely that his reign could end as that of another dictator\u2014perhaps like Josef Stalin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is hard for \u0141uka\u0161enka not to envy Ilham Aliyev, who enjoys the advantages of oil wealth, international prestige, and a well-established system for succession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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