{"id":11395,"date":"2022-04-14T15:21:14","date_gmt":"2022-04-14T12:21:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-has-more-reasons-to-be-wary-of-putin-after-russias-invasion\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-has-more-reasons-to-be-wary-of-putin-after-russias-invasion","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11395\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka has more reasons to be wary of Putin after Russia\u2019s invasion"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka on April 13 dismissed concerns about Belarus\u2019 possible incorporation into Russia. “[Vladimir] Putin and I are not so stupid as to act in the old ways. We will build such a unity of the two independent states that others will learn from us,” he said at a meeting with Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of Russia’s Primorsky region, in Vladivostok.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cPutin and I are not so stupid\u201d can be rephrased to grasp its real meaning: \u201cI hope that Putin is not so stupid.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

Balancing between Russia and West<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka and Putin have never trusted each other. Observers say that Putin\u2019s selection by Boris Yeltsin came as a big surprise to the Belarusian ruler who hoped to replace the ailing Russian president.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In 2002, Luka\u0161enka voiced his indignation at Putin\u2019s alleged proposal on the incorporation of Belarus into Russia. \u201cEven Lenin and Stalin did not think of breaking up Belarus into pieces to incorporate it in the RSFSR or USSR,\u201d he said after a meeting with the Russian leader.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Throughout his rule, Luka\u0161enka curried favor with Moscow to obtain economic subsidies. When the Kremlin cut economic aid, he criticized Putin for his imperial ambitions.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t During low points in the rocky relations with Moscow, he made overtures to the West but has failed to build a steadfast relationship with the European Union and the United States, which have always been concerned about Belarus\u2019 backslide on democracy and human rights.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka opposes market-oriented reform because he is reluctant to relax his grip on the economy and power. Belarus\u2019 inefficient state-run economy is heavily reliant on Russian subsidies. This makes it difficult for the Belarusian autocrat to reduce his dependence on Moscow.\n<\/p>\n


\nOverreliance <\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t In the 2000s Belarus’ economic growth accelerated as Minsk reaped the benefits of Luka\u0161enka\u2019s oil-for-kisses arrangement with Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow, exasperated with his on and off promises to unite his country with Russia, in December 2018 demanded deeper integration in return for any aid given to Belarus. He dismissed the idea as an attempt to blackmail Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A few months later he refused to sign Belarusian-Russian integration roadmaps.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Nevertheless, Moscow stood by Luka\u0161enka during the 2020 post-election protests. He reciprocated by signing slightly watered down integration programs and allowing Russian troops to use Belarusian territory and infrastructure for their invasion of Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Since then, the Belarusian strongman has been perceived by Belarusians, Ukrainians and the West as the Kremlin\u2019s puppet.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka has lost his political independence, while Belarus has found itself on the verge of annexation to Russia.\n<\/p>\n

Different types of nostalgia<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka, like many observers, apparently overestimated Putin\u2019s sensibility and did not seem to take the possibility of Russia\u2019s full-scale war against Ukraine seriously.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The blatant assault showed that the Russian leader is out of touch with reality and is driven by his imperial instincts, which also pose a threat to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Putin thinks that Ukraine does not have a right to independence (he said that it was artificially established by Lenin and that the Communists gave Ukraine Russian land). He must be thinking that the same is true for Belarus and may soon try to substantiate this theory.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Both Putin and Luka\u0161enka are nostalgic for the Soviet Union but in a different way. Putin would like to restore the Soviet empire. Luka\u0161enka likes Soviet single-mindedness, central planning, guaranteed distribution of Belarusian goods all over the Soviet market, and, of course, the Soviet Union\u2019s nuclear power and its assertiveness vis-\u00e0-vis the West.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But he does not want to be a local leader of the Soviet Communist Party and he does not want to be accountable to Moscow. He wants USSR reincarnation in terms of subsidies and benefits that Minsk can receive from Moscow. On the other hand, he wants to be a ruler in his own right in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t His dream may never come true because the stronger side dictates the rules. Luka\u0161enka is weak, and Moscow sees him as its vassal.\n<\/p>\n

Incorporation unavoidable?<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Putin has his hands full in Ukraine, so he will not rush with incorporating Belarus into Russia. Moscow is quite happy with the ongoing creeping absorption.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka is ill at ease; he realizes that his lieutenants are looking at him as Russia\u2019s vassal whose future is decided in Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t After Russia\u2019s assault on Ukraine Luka\u0161enka may be seeing Putin as a more unpredictable partner. When he says \u201cPutin and I are not so stupid,\u201d he means \u201cI hope Putin is not so stupid.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t They have never been equal, the more so they are not equal now. No matter how hard Luka\u0161enka tried to outfox Putin, he has lost his game with the empire. Russia has never been in a better position to absorb Belarus and can do it slowly.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The nation\u2019s survival hinges on Ukraine\u2019s success in the battle with Russia, and also on the Belarusian people\u2019s determination to fight for freedom.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Ukrainians proved to have guts and skills to defend their freedom. Belarusian troops were not sent to Ukraine because of opposition from the overwhelming majority of Belarusians, not only because Luka\u0161enka did not give them orders to invade. Therefore, not only leaders, but also ordinary people can play a role in history.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka on April 13 dismissed concerns about Belarus\u2019 possible incorporation into Russia. “[Vladimir] Putin and I are not so stupid as to act in the old ways. We will build such a unity of the two independent states that others will learn from us,” he said at a meeting with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11395","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka has more reasons to be wary of Putin after Russia\u2019s invasion | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka on April 13 dismissed concerns about Belarus\u2019 possible incorporation into Russia. 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