{"id":11396,"date":"2022-04-15T17:29:21","date_gmt":"2022-04-15T14:29:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/minsk-putting-out-feelers-for-talks-with-west-but-many-obstacles-remain\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"minsk-putting-out-feelers-for-talks-with-west-but-many-obstacles-remain","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11396\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk putting out feelers for talks with West, but many obstacles remain"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Uladzimir Makiej, Belarus\u2019 foreign minister, has appealed the European Union to stop trading accusations and imposing restrictions and start thinking about future relations between Belarus and the EU. In a letter addressed to EU officials and ministers of several EU member states, which was leaked to RFE\/RL Belarus Service, he called on the EU to engage in a dialogue and promised that Belarus will not be dragged into Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

Why not demand withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus?<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Belarus has been severely criticized by the West for allowing Russian forces to use its territory and infrastructure for attacks on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In the letter, Makiej says that Belarus had nothing to do with hostilities in Ukraine because it was not engaged \u201cin any way\u201d in combat operations. But Brussels is well aware of Minsk\u2019s role in Russia\u2019s invasion.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Minsk may argue that it was misled by Moscow. Vladimir Putin might not have informed Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka of his plan to attack Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If Minsk was misinformed or not informed at all, why does not it demand that Russia withdraw its troops from Belarus?\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka did not raise the matter during his recent meeting with Putin at the Vostochny cosmodrome. Instead, he claimed that reports of massacre in Bucha were a special psychological operation by the British secret service.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Clearly, he curries favor with Moscow to secure new subsidies. No matter how hard Luka\u0161enka tries to play down sanctions, officials in Minsk realize that the European Union\u2019s ban on 70 percent of Belarusian exports is a serious challenge.\n<\/p>\n

Contrast with propaganda narratives<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Makiej\u2019s letter proves that senior officials are aware of possible consequences of Belarus\u2019 complicity in the aggression, such as economic sanctions and political dependence on Moscow that may lead to Belarus\u2019 incorporation into Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t This is the reason Minsk has been trying to disassociate itself from Russia\u2019s military campaign.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A few days ago, Luka\u0161enka told Makiej to work toward Belarus\u2019 inclusion in negotiations on Ukraine. The Belarusian ruler is definitely unhappy about his image of Putin\u2019s vassal. He also fears that the Kremlin may strike a deal with Kyiv, while he might be held responsible for the invasion.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t That is why Minsk is reaching out to the West. Makiej\u2019s appeal conflicts with Belarusian propaganda narrative that it does not make sense to engage with Washington and Brussels because the West seeks to destroy the union of Belarus and Russia.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The truth is that Minsk is not quite happy with that union and believes that dialogue with the West is quite possible, desirable and sees it as a matter of salvation.\n<\/p>\n

Ball in regime\u2019s court<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Letters from the minister will not be enough to prompt the West and Kyiv to reckon with Luka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Kyiv refrains from making strong-worded statements about Belarus, hoping that Luka\u0161enka will not send Belarusian troops to Ukraine to fight alongside with the Russians.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t There may be players in the EU eager to drive a wedge between Minsk and Moscow.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The ball in the Belarusian regime\u2019s court. Will Luka\u0161enka persuade Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Belarus?\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some troops have left as Russian forces regroup for a possible offensive in eastern Ukraine. But complete withdrawal is unlikely.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow would like to have a military presence in Belarus to distract Ukrainian forces. Moreover, Belarus hosts a joint training center (actually two in one), which Moscow can use as a pretext to keep its fighter jets and missiles on the Belarusian soil. Russian aircraft have been involved in joint patrol missions over Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The West is unlikely to engage with Minsk before it releases what human rights watchdogs call political prisoners and stops persecuting dissidents.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Meanwhile, Luka\u0161enka is afraid of a new uprising as he is aware of his low support among the Belarusians. He can hardly take any risks by loosening screws on his opponents.\n<\/p>\n

Makiej trying his luck<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Makiej may be hoping that the EU, exasperated with the Ukrainian crisis and driven by realpolitik, will swallow the bait.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Similar tricks worked in the past. But after the 2020 disputed presidential election, the EU and many other countries do not consider Luka\u0161enka president, while many Belarusians are frustrated with his regime and are waiting for an opportunity to change it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Kremlin has succeeded in consolidating Belarus as Russia\u2019s vassal, and Luka\u0161enka hardly has any room for maneuver. Makiej\u2019s letter proves that Moscow has driven the Belarusian regime into the corner as it tries to maneuver its way out of trouble.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Uladzimir Makiej, Belarus\u2019 foreign minister, has appealed the European Union to stop trading accusations and imposing restrictions and start thinking about future relations between Belarus and the EU. In a letter addressed to EU officials and ministers of several EU member states, which was leaked to RFE\/RL Belarus Service, he called […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11396","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk putting out feelers for talks with West, but many obstacles remain | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Aliaksandr Klasko\u016dski, BPN Uladzimir Makiej, Belarus\u2019 foreign minister, has appealed the European Union to stop trading accusations and imposing\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11396\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Minsk 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