{"id":11403,"date":"2022-04-24T16:06:46","date_gmt":"2022-04-24T13:06:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-straps-himself-tightly-to-kremlin\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-straps-himself-tightly-to-kremlin","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11403\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka straps himself tightly to Kremlin"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reprinting is allowed\n<\/p>\n

\n The Kremlin\u2019s likely weakening will not bode well for Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka. He has burned all bridges in relations with the West, while Ukraine will never forgive him his complicity in Russia\u2019s assault. The war fuels public frustration with his policies.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Failed attempt to boost legitimacy<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Three weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, the Belarusian leader said that a hypothetical war with Ukraine would last no more than four days. \u201cNobody will fight us there,\u201d he noted in an interview with Vladimir Solovyev, a prominent Russian propagandist, in early February.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He seemed to believe that Ukraine will not put up much resistance. After the 2013-14 Maidan Revolution, he associated Ukraine with chaos and anarchy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t His perception did not change after the election of Volodymyr Zelenky, a former comedian, as president. He mocked the Ukrainian president as empty-headed and a man completely out of his mind and said that he should be treated like a child. The derogatory comments reflect his perception of the neighboring country. He thought that Ukraine would not stand a chance in an armed clash with Russia\u2019s military might.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t But two months later, he started to distance himself from Russia despite his heavy dependence on the Kremlin.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Whereas before he often referred to the Kremlin as \u201cwe,\u201d he did not do so at a Security Council meeting on April 7. Instead, he expressed discontent that Belarus was perceived as a co-aggressor.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Ukrainian army led by President Zelensky forced Russia to retreat and redefine its goals. No matter what happens during the second phase of Moscow\u2019s \u201cspecial operation,\u201d Russia will emerge from the campaign significantly weakened.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t While Vladimir Putin\u2019s ratings still hold up well, Luka\u0161enka seems to be frustrated with a lack of support even from law enforcement officials.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t “Have you forgotten about 2020?\u201d he asked law enforcement chiefs at a conference on April 19. \u201cOr are three-quarters of you sitting here happy about what happened in 2020 and want that it to repeat? Keep in mind that it won’t work. I have enough strength, means and those guys who will stand by me, and we will blow the head off anyone who wants to disturb the peace and tranquility in our country today.” The \u201ctwo-thirds\u201d possibly had come up during his internal discussions with officials, at which speakers could have estimated the approximate number of disloyal officials.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He offered Russia to use Belarusian infrastructure for its assault on Ukraine to reciprocate for the Kremlin\u2019s support during 2020 post-election protests. He also hoped that a successful campaign would boost his legitimacy in the eyes of officials and the Belarusian public. However, the public\u2019s perception of him has not improved. Moreover, it is unclear whether the Kremlin is satisfied with how he has supported the Russian military campaign.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka tries to motivate officials, personnel quality is an issue<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t The Belarusian leader certainly has doubts about officials\u2019 motivation. \u201cIs there complacency in the government and other agencies?\u201d he questioned during the conference. \u201cYou see, [Uladzimir] Karanik [head of the Hrodna Regional Executive Committee] has overgrown with moss. What will we do?\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He also urged the education ministry to purge schools of teachers who \u201ccome to school like to a factory to give a lesson and go home.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The emergency response and law enforcement agencies have not been coping with their core duties after Luka\u0161enka had forced them to shift focus to fighting dissent. Officials at the conference discussed a rise in crime and deaths as a result of fires.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Some police and emergency response officers resigned in protest against police violence during and after the 2020 presidential election, others were fired on suspicion of disloyalty or for sympathy with the opposition. Most of those who stayed are loyal to Luka\u0161enka and are looking for opportunities to make a career by winning brownie points with their bosses. Not surprisingly crime and fatalities are on the rise.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka would not worry so much about the trend if law enforcement agencies had fought dissent effectively. But he and Prosecutor General Andrej \u0160vied criticized the interior ministry for low detection rates for \u201cextremist\u201d crimes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cUp to now [police] have not identified all those responsible for causing bodily harm to police officers, committing subversive acts at transport facilities, setting fire to buildings and other outrageous crimes,\u201d \u0160vied said.\n<\/p>\n

Luka\u0161enka unsure whether he can cope with discontent<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Luka\u0161enka relies on intimidation and the Kremlin\u2019s support for his political survival.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russia will be weakened by international sanctions and military campaign failures, but Luka\u0161enka will not be able to take advantage of it because he and Putin are in the same boat.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He has burnt bridges in relations with the West, betrayed Ukraine and his disapproval rating, which exceeded 50 percent before the war, is likely to rise.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He realizes that the political climate remains unfavorable and public discontent can boil over into a new wave of protests.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Based on the remarks he made during the April 19 conference, he is unsure of his security forces\u2019 ability to suppress protests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies * Reprinting is allowed The Kremlin\u2019s likely weakening will not bode well for Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka. He has burned all bridges in relations with the West, while Ukraine will never forgive him his complicity in Russia\u2019s assault. The war fuels public frustration with his policies. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11403","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLuka\u0161enka straps himself tightly to Kremlin | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies * Reprinting is allowed The Kremlin\u2019s likely weakening will not bode well\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11403\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Luka\u0161enka straps himself tightly to Kremlin | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski, director of the Belarusian 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