{"id":11404,"date":"2022-04-27T10:01:03","date_gmt":"2022-04-27T07:01:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-regime-can-survive-war-in-ukraine-but-can-hardly-survive-without-transformation\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-regime-can-survive-war-in-ukraine-but-can-hardly-survive-without-transformation","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11404\/","title":{"rendered":"Luka\u0161enka regime can survive war in Ukraine, but can hardly survive without transformation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reprinting is allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka had introduced military elements into his system even before Minsk launched its crackdown on post-election protesters in 2020. The trend intensified during mass protests as he appointed Committee for State Security (KGB) officials to decision-making bodies. His personalistic regime eliminated the final formal attributes of democracy, including the right to peaceful protest.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Still short of totalitarianism<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Belarus is not yet a classic totalitarian state like North Korea. Luka\u0161enka has failed to devise a state ideology that could enable him to enslave society for \u201ccommon good.\u201d He fully relies on his security apparatus, while voters do not have any illusions that they are involved in governing the state.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t State propaganda casts Belarus as people\u2019s democracy, while officials cultivate a culture of paternalism based on the principle \u201cDad knows better that his child needs.\u201d As the economy continues to falter, the government has been struggling to raise living standards and meet its social obligations.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Classic totalitarian regimes engage their populations in enslaving each other for a great goal. The leader is just the best guy in a mass of enslaved people. Authoritarianism, on the contrary, seeks to keep its monopoly on violence. It does not tolerate creative thinking, and asserts its leader\u2019s greatness through a common doctrine. An authoritarian leader needs just passive support of a majority, which is more about tacit readiness to obey. A totalitarian leader needs proactive support; tacit obedience is not enough.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Authoritarianism with totalitarian practices<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Researchers classify authoritarian and totalitarian regimes based on the degree of control of private lives and suppression of political rights and freedoms. Based on these criteria, Belarus is an authoritarian state, which employs certain totalitarian practices such as secret police\u2019s intrusion in privacy.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Some researchers say that authoritarian regimes resort to mass terror targeting certain groups, rather than individuals, based on ethnicity, race, denomination or profession only under extreme circumstances.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Arrests of dissidents and religious leaders, retaliation for 2020 protests and attempts by security services to fabricate the prevention of threats to the regime make it difficult to determine the type of political persecution in Belarus. It is difficult to find one valid indicator.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The regime seems to be evolving. At present, one can only wonder why the KGB has arrested trade union leaders but has not apprehended leaders and activists of opposition political parties. Both unions and parties have been inactive since 2021.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Intimidation is expensive<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t The determination of mass persecution is important for predicting how developments may unfold.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The crackdown continues, and authorities do not seem to plan to halt it. If authorities target a social group rather than individuals, it will leave deeper scars than Luka\u0161enka\u2019s usual attacks on dissidents and political rivals.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Mass persecution is usually aimed at transforming society, not simply creating an atmosphere of fear. The Luka\u0161enka regime does not have an ideology or a vision of the future. The Belarusian ruler is completely focused on holding onto power and sees his regime as a besieged fortress.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t The ongoing crackdown may not change the essence of the Luka\u0161enka regime. But the process is expensive, while the regime\u2019s resources are limited. Therefore, it is a matter of the regime\u2019s survival.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Dependence on, relationship with Moscow<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Belarus has access to the Russian market. Moscow has rescheduled Minsk\u2019s debts but stopped short of offering Minsk new loans. The Belarusian regime is still capable of financing itself.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Minsk has made substantial concessions to Moscow in terms of sovereignty in joint integration bodies and the use of Belarus as a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t But Belarus has not become a Russian protectorate and has not been occupied by Russia. It is in a Russian sphere of influence, but Minsk and Moscow are co-dependent in a number of areas, not subordinate one to the other.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t If it is true, Belarus and the Luka\u0161enka regime remain independent, although they are under heavy influence of Russia. Therefore, the regime can survive any outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but it can hardly survive without transforming the system.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski * Reprinting is allowed Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka had introduced military elements into his system even before Minsk launched its crackdown on post-election protesters in 2020. The trend intensified during mass protests as he appointed Committee for State Security (KGB) officials to decision-making bodies. His personalistic regime eliminated the final formal attributes of democracy, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11404","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Luka\u0161enka regime can survive war in Ukraine, but can hardly survive without transformation | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Pa\u016dliuk Byko\u016dski * Reprinting is allowed Aliaksandr Luka\u0161enka had introduced military elements into his system even before Minsk launched its crackdown\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11404\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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