{"id":11418,"date":"2022-05-24T09:59:24","date_gmt":"2022-05-24T06:59:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/support-for-russian-invasion-relatively-low-in-belarus\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"support-for-russian-invasion-relatively-low-in-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11418\/","title":{"rendered":"Support for Russian invasion relatively low in Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Piotra Rudko\u016dski<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n

\n Authorities in Belarus and Russia have employed fear and soft power to shore up public support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Should Russia fail, some components of its soft power will work against it. It is already clear that most Belarusians do not support the war.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t A poll conducted by Russian Field, a private company, earlier this month found that 26 percent of Russians would have cancelled \u201cthe special military operation\u201d if they had the power to do so, but 57 percent would not. In Belarus, 40 percent do not support the invasion, 20 percent definitely support it, and 12 percent would rather support it, according to a poll conducted by Chatham House in April.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Both polls may not be absolutely reliable because of the increased levels of intimidation of opponents of the invasion in the two countries. Some respondents might be afraid to speak out for fear of reprisals.\n<\/p>\n

Fear factor<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t Russian Field approached nearly 30,000 people to select 1,609 individuals for the survey. Only 5.6 percent of those approached completed the questionnaire, 90 percent refused to take the survey outright and 4.4 percent gave up in the process. Most refusals must have had something to do with fear.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t In Belarus, the percentage of refusals was lower, at 25 percent. The poll was conducted online, whereas Russian Field interviewed respondents by phone. The proportion of those who disapproved of the Russian invasion is much higher in Belarus. For this reason, more respondents in Belarus might be willing to discuss the issue.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Fear can reduce only the percentage of individuals opposed to the invasion, it does not work the other way round. Those who are afraid to speak freely, usually answer \u201cDon\u2019t know\u201d or \u201cFind it difficult to answer.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Based on the above, the following conclusions can be made:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 1. The percentage of opponents of the invasion is the minimum value. We can assume that at least 40 percent of Belarus\u2019 urban population and 26 percent of Russia\u2019s population are against the war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 2. The percentage of supporters is the maximum value. Respondents would not be afraid to admit that they support the war.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 3. An error in favor of supporters of the war is insignificant. Respondents would choose \u201cDon\u2019t know\u201d or \u201cFind it difficult to answer,\u201d not the opposite option.\n<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s soft power to work against Russia<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t A similar poll conducted in Bulgaria found that 23.6 percent of its population sided with Russia; 32.4 percent, with Ukraine; and 43.9 percent marked off \u201cNot taking sides,\u201d \u201cDon\u2019t know\u201d and \u201cDon\u2019t take an interest.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Although the wording of the questions was different, comparisons can be made.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Let us take a look at responses to the following questions:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cNATO provoked the conflict by violating agreements with Russia not to expand eastward\u201d \u2013 46.5 percent agree and 22.3 percent disagree.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cUkraine developed weapons of mass destruction\u201d — 31.8 percent agree and 24.4 percent disagree.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201cRussian forces did not kill peaceful residents in Ukraine; the allegations were a campaign of mudslinging by Ukrainian secret services\u201d \u2013 29.9 percent agree and 25.1 percent disagree.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Bulgaria is a democracy, a member of NATO and the European Union. However, the Kremlin\u2019s narratives have found a receptive audience there. Those who definitely side with Ukraine and do not buy the Kremlin\u2019s narratives make up no more than 25 percent. The rest either side with Russia or are undecided.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t If fear is discounted, disapproval of the Russian invasion is roughly the same in Bulgaria and Russia. It is significantly higher in Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

Conclusions:<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t 1. Fear may complicate public communications, including opinion polls. In these circumstances, the proportion of opponents of the government\u2019s policy is more informative that the proportion of proponents.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 2. Public sentiment in Bulgaria proves that the Kremlin\u2019s narratives can be effective outside the area affected by fear. The Kremlin\u2019s soft power has not yet run out of steam. It can influence the public opinion, especially in countries with traditions of Slavophilism and the presence of the Russian Orthodox Church.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t 3. In Belarus and Russia, both fear and soft power make an impact. It is difficult to say which one has more influence on the public opinion when it comes to support of the invasion. If Russia suffers a small defeat, some components of its soft power will work against it. A failure would be perceived as a blow to the Russian Orthodox world, traditional values and the cultural and language community.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Piotra Rudko\u016dski * Reproduction is allowed Authorities in Belarus and Russia have employed fear and soft power to shore up public support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Should Russia fail, some components of its soft power will work against it. It is already clear that most Belarusians do not support the war. A […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11418","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSupport for Russian invasion relatively low in Belarus | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski * Reproduction is allowed Authorities in Belarus and Russia have employed fear and soft power to shore up public support for the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11418\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Support for Russian invasion relatively low in Belarus | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Piotra Rudko\u016dski * Reproduction is allowed 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