{"id":11430,"date":"2022-06-10T09:50:51","date_gmt":"2022-06-10T06:50:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/lukasenka-sees-holding-on-to-power-as-his-last-security-guarantee\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"lukasenka-sees-holding-on-to-power-as-his-last-security-guarantee","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11430\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka sees holding on to power as his last security guarantee"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction prohibited\n<\/p>\n

\n Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka said earlier this week that he would be happy to see the Russian Orthodox leader in Belarus in 2025 for an anniversary of Po\u0142ack\u2019s Savior and St. Euphrosyne Convent. The Belarusian ruler is determined to stay in power as long as he can.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Overstayed welcome<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t During August 2020 protests, the Belarusian leader said at a rally at the Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant that he might step down in a year or two. \u201cEverything depends on you,\u201d he added. Two months later he admitted in an interview that he \u201cmight overstayed a little bit.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He changed his plans for an early election a few months later. In February 2022, he held a constitutional referendum to establish an additional mechanism in the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly to secure his tenure. The new constitution introduced a two-term limit for presidents, but not for him.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t With tightly choreographed presidential elections, he can stay in office two more terms, until 2035.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Critics have accused the Belarusian ruler of rigging all elections and referenda during his tenure.\n<\/p>\n

Kremlin\u2019s support<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t After the 2020 peaceful uprising, \u0141uka\u0161enka has relied on reprisals to keep himself in power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Russian President Vladimir Putin stood by him after the disputed 2020 presidential election. \u0141uka\u0161enka saw his reliance on the Kremlin grow following a steep decline in his approval ratings in the country.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Moscow seems to be satisfied with his behavior, especially after he supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka meet frequently to coordinate their policies. On June 9 the Belarusian leader announced that Moscow had pledged about $1.5 billion in aid to support import substitution.\n<\/p>\n

Grim economic outlook<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t \u201cThe Belarusian regime looks resilient, but you never know whether it can survive another political crisis,\u201d said Valeryj Karbalevi\u010d, a Belarusian political analyst.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t He noted that Russia\u2019s possible failure in Ukraine may trigger a political crisis that may spill over to Belarus.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The \u0141uka\u0161enka regime also faces economic challenges. Belarus\u2019 economy contracted by six percent in April. \u201cThat was just the beginning,\u201d Karbalevi\u010d said, noting that the recession comes amid a lack of public confidence in the government.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka used a message of stability to win over voters in the past. The economic crisis shows that he is \u201cthe main destabilizer,\u201d he added.\n<\/p>\n

Future hinges on outcome of Russia\u2019s war<\/span> <\/h2>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s future hinges on \u201cthe regional dynamic: the outcome of the war, what Russia will emerge after it and what relations will be like between Russia and \u0141uka\u0161enka after the war,\u201d said Ar\u0107em \u0160rajbman, a Belarusian political analyst, noting that all these factors are absolutely unpredictable.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u201c\u0141uka\u0161enka may be confident to stay in power until 2025, if everything goes well for Russia and for him. If developments take a twist, we may see changes much sooner and [they will be] much more spontaneous than we expect,\u201d he told The Viewer.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \u0141uka\u0161enka will definitely not step down on his own. He sees holding on to power at any cost, including through bullying and terror, as the only way to safeguard himself and his family from possible future criminal prosecution for abuses of human rights and his office.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction prohibited Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka said earlier this week that he would be happy to see the Russian Orthodox leader in Belarus in 2025 for an anniversary of Po\u0142ack\u2019s Savior and St. Euphrosyne Convent. The Belarusian ruler is determined to stay in power as long as he can. Overstayed welcome During […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-11430","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka sees holding on to power as his last security guarantee | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction prohibited Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka said earlier this week that he would be happy to see the Russian Orthodox\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11430\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0141uka\u0161enka sees holding on to power as his last security guarantee | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta 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