{"id":11447,"date":"2022-07-11T09:10:47","date_gmt":"2022-07-11T06:10:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-under-lukasenka-on-the-brink-of-losing-its-independence\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-under-lukasenka-on-the-brink-of-losing-its-independence","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11447\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus under \u0141uka\u0161enka on the brink of losing its independence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n <span>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n<p>\n <b>It has been 28 years to the date when Aliaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka resoundingly won Belarus\u2019 first presidential election on July 10, 1994 to roll back freedoms and build an authoritarian state. Political opponents fear that Belarus is on the verge of losing its independence.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Hostility with the West, economic uncertainty<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t Belarus saw its dependence on Russia grow dramatically after social unrest in the wake of the August 2020 presidential election had forced the Belarusian ruler to appeal to Moscow for emergency aid.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Two years later, \u0141uka\u0161enka offered Russia infrastructure and territory for its assault on Ukraine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Derek Hogan, deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of State Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, said on July 8 that Washington would not engage with Minsk unless \u0141uka\u0161enka disengages from Vladimir Putin\u2019s brutal war. This is highly unlikely because it would be a political suicide for the Belarusian ruler.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Therefore, the West may tighten sanctions against Belarus over the regime\u2019s complicity in the Russian attacks on Ukraine. Belarus\u2019 gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 8.8 percent in May year on year. Annual economic decline is expected to be within a range of seven to 20 percent, while inflation may be in the region of 15-20 percent for years to come, said the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Sanctions will definitely cause the technology gap between Belarus and developed countries to widen.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Import substitution and stronger ties with Russia are not a solution. The two technologically underdeveloped countries cannot suddenly make a breakthrough under authoritarian regimes amid hostility with the rest of the world.\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Belarus as staging ground for Russian attacks<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t At the beginning of his tenure, \u0141uka\u0161enka even considered the prospect of European Union (EU) membership for Belarus. On signing a partnership and cooperation agreement with the EU in Brussels in March 1995, he said that it was \u201cthe first important step to our main goal, membership of the EU.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t That agreement did not take effect because \u0141uka\u0161enka took immediate steps that ran counter to EU values to stifle democracy and freedoms. He shifted his energies to energy-rich Russia. At one point, he was said to be hoping to replace ailing Russian President Boris Yeltsin.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Luka\u0161enka never trusted Vladimir Putin.&nbsp;In 2002, he voiced his indignation at Putin\u2019s alleged proposal on the incorporation of Belarus into Russia. \u201cEven Lenin and Stalin did not think of breaking up Belarus into pieces to incorporate it in the RSFSR or USSR,\u201d he said after a meeting with the Russian leader.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Obviously, he would not dare to criticize the Russian president in 2022. On the other hand, \u0141uka\u0161enka seems to be worried that he is perceived as the Kremlin\u2019s puppet. \u201cIf someone thinks \u2013 media often write about it \u2013 that Belarus is occupied, \u0141uka\u0161enka decides nothing, there is no authority in Belarus and [Vladimir] Putin walks in Belarus and decides everything . . . Remember, not a single step in Belarus, especially today, is made without President \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s approval or order,\u201d he said earlier this month.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Putin has not visited Belarus for quite a while. He prefers to meet with \u0141uka\u0161enka at the Kremlin, in Saint Petersburg and Sochi. But he maintains a heavy Russian military presence in Belarus. Russian generals use the neighbor\u2019s territory as a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine, possibly without asking the Belarusian ruler for approval.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<h2> <span>Society polarized, totalitarian practices<\/span> <\/h2>\n<p>\n\t After 28 years in charge, \u0141uka\u0161enka has smashed relations with developed countries into pieces. The economy is in decline, while the political regime has regressed from authoritarianism to totalitarianism. &nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Society is extremely polarized as the Belarusian ruler relies on repression and long prison sentences to silence his critics and keep himself in power. Polls suggest that his unwavering supporters account for 20 percent to 25 percent of the electorate.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t More Belarusians are striving for democracy and freedom, while independence has become an undisputed value for the overwhelming majority.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t Earlier this month, \u0141uka\u0161enka delivered parts of two keynote speeches in Belarusian, including his Independence Day address.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t However, his regime continues its hostile and destructive policy that undermines the Belarusian language, culture and sovereignty.\n<\/p>\n<p>He has promised to defend<br \/>\nindependence. Naturally, he does not want to give up power. His obsession with power,<br \/>\nbackward-looking and hardline mentality and brutal methods have driven Belarus<br \/>\ninto isolation and heavy dependence on Russia, whose leader considers Belarus\u2019 political<br \/>\nindependence a historical error. &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction is allowed It has been 28 years to the date when Aliaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka resoundingly won Belarus\u2019 first presidential election on July 10, 1994 to roll back freedoms and build an authoritarian state. Political opponents fear that Belarus is on the verge of losing its independence. Hostility with the West, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11447","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarus under \u0141uka\u0161enka on the brink of losing its independence | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction is allowed It has been 28 years to the date when Aliaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka resoundingly won Belarus\u2019 first\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11447\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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