{"id":11459,"date":"2022-08-11T18:22:16","date_gmt":"2022-08-11T15:22:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/longreads\/belarus-opposition-leaders-need-new-strategy\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T20:29:13","slug":"belarus-opposition-leaders-need-new-strategy","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11459\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus\u2019 opposition leaders need new strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t * Reproduction is allowed\n<\/p>\n

\n \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and her office earlier this week announced the formation of a transition cabinet in response to criticism from other opposition leaders and groups. The opponents need a new strategy to deal with the regime in Belarus.<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

Cichano\u016dskaja team outplays critics<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t The August 8-9 conference in Vilnius was a good home game for the former Belarusian presidential candidate\u2019s team. They must have thoroughly analyzed their opponents and tried to defuse tension. The event was skillfully moderated. Those who had criticized her office a few weeks before had an opportunity to discuss their concerns about the camp\u2019s indecision, poor communication, the incoherent program and its failure to catch up with developments.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, arguably the second to Cichano\u016dskaja in terms of prominence in the opposition camp, had long called for establishing a transition government. The idea had also been promoted by ByPol head Alaksandr Azara\u016d and Vadzim Prakopje\u016d, a man who says he has a plan to form an armed force for liberating Belarus from Alaksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Opposition leaders see the transition cabinet as a compact unit. It is expected to be headed by Cichano\u016dskaja, whose authority has somewhat faded but remains undisputed.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t She named Azara\u016d as representative for the restoration of law and order; her chief of staff, Valer Kavale\u016dski, as representative for foreign affairs; and Lieutenant Colonel Valer Sacha\u0161\u010dyk as representative for defense and national security.<\/p>\n

\t The transitional cabinet will include representatives for social policy, economy, finance, and national revival.\n<\/p>\n

Capka\u0142a parts ways<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t The conference was generally constructive and may have eased tension in the opposition camp, at least for some time. But divisions remain.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Valeryj Capka\u0142a and his supporters definitely intend to take a separate road. They have unveiled a plan to form a national council, which can potentially become a rival opposition center.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Vieranika Capka\u0142a, his wife, created a stir at the Vilnius conference when she called for establishing a public council to monitor the independent media.\n<\/p>\n

Sacha\u0161\u010dyk sees use of force a realistic solution<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t The appointment of Sacha\u0161\u010dyk, a former commander of the 38 Air Assault Brigade, was the key highlight. He has a reputation as an educated and honest officer, and a successful businessman. Prakopje\u016d and others pushing for armed resistance endorsed his candidacy.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The colonel said that the use of force was a realistic option, and added that he and other cabinet members would do their best to make sure that things will not get as far as \u201ca Belarusian will shoot at another Belarusian.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Cichano\u016dskaja camp seems to be wary of a radical scenario. The former presidential candidate stressed that the cabinet\u2019s goal was \u201cthe de-occupation of the country.\u201d\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Her camp left a clause calling for the establishment of a national liberation movement out of the final declaration.\n<\/p>\n

Not all i\u2019s dotted<\/span><\/h2>\n

\n\t The opponents need a new strategy. The regime has proved to be capable of suppressing peaceful protests of a big scale. It is unclear what armed resistance could force \u0141uka\u0161enka to step down.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t Observers are wondering how opponents can form and train a liberation army abroad and what country could allow them to use its territory for it.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is unclear whether opponents can secure support from brutalized and oppressed Belarusian public for a radical scenario.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t It is unclear how opponents can deal with \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s support by Moscow. Vladimir Putin admitted that he had an army on stand-by at the Russian-Belarusian border during the 2020 post-election protests in Belarus. Clearly, Moscow would not hesitate to intervene to prevent the pro-Western opposition from taking power.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t The Vilnius conference has not given clear answers to these and other questions. Its participants could hardly come up with a magic solution. Anyway, politicians who declare ambitious political and historical goals must eventually produce some ideas on responses to the tough challenges of reality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction is allowed \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and her office earlier this week announced the formation of a transition cabinet in response to criticism from other opposition leaders and groups. The opponents need a new strategy to deal with the regime in Belarus. Cichano\u016dskaja team outplays critics The August 8-9 conference in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":75,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-11459","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarus\u2019 opposition leaders need new strategy | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandr K\u0142asko\u016dski, BPN * Reproduction is allowed \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and her office earlier this week announced the formation of a transition\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/11459\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarus\u2019 opposition leaders need new strategy | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta 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